Breeders’ Cup Classic fair odds: Forever Young is clear value

Everywhere I looked, whether it is Vegas, Covers or overseas markets, Forever Young was the fourth choice to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 1 at Del Mar with odds for last year’s third-place finisher anywhere between 6-1 and 10-1.

Even on the short end of that range, Forever Young would represent value against my fair odds line of 9-2. Sovereignty, the dual classic winner who won the Grade 1 Travers Stakes last out, is my most likely winner at 4-1 fair odds. That is a far cry from the 2-1 max price available overseas, and he is sub 2-1 at Las Vegas bookmakers.

Breeders’ Cup Classic: Analyzing the key preps.

Similar to Sierra Leone, I downgraded Fierceness’s chances following news that he would retire to Coolmore Stud following the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Sierra Leone and Fierceness were the first- and second-place finishers in last year’s Classic, but I don’t like the early stallion announcements. It shows to me a lack of confidence that there will be even more to market after the Breeders’ Cup.

I could see Forever Young being one of my stronger singles on the card, especially with news that Arc (G1) runner-up Minnie Hauk is targeting the Breeders’ Cup Turf. That is the penultimate leg of a Pick 5 concluding with the Classic and the first leg of the late Pick 5. Minnie Hauk will be one of the shortest prices on the day, so hooking her up with another favorite like Sovereignty just doesn’t interest me much.

Long-shots wise, Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Antiquarian and Goodwood Stakes (G1) winner Nevada Beach could be overlaid off winning efforts and improving trajectories. I have not given up on Journalism or Baeza, either, as the likely fifth and sixth choices. Mindframe is a complete toss for me with no real race since June.