Breeders' Cup Classic fair odds: Fierceness is most likely winner

After last weekend's smorgasbord of graded-stakes action for older males, only one Breeders' Cup Classic prep remains ahead of North America's richest race on Nov. 2 at Del Mar, and it's not even in the U.S.

Forever Young, who suffered his first career loss when third behind Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone in the Kentucky Derby, returns to the races on Wednesday at Oi Racecourse for the Japan Dirt Classic. If he doesn't win, I likely would demote his chances. But even with a victory I cannot see him advancing past fellow 3-year-old Fierceness as my most likely winner.

Forever Young did finish ahead of Fierceness in the Derby, but since then Fierceness has won the Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers Stakes (G1). And the retirement of Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch leaves last year's champion 2-year-old male and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner as the only 1 1/4-mile winner on dirt among this year's 3-year-olds. City of Troy has won at up to 1 1/2 miles on turf.

Fierceness also is in the driver's seat in terms of year-end championships, as a win would almost assuredly lock up champion 3-year-old male and horse of the year titles regardless of anything else that happens this year short of Thorpedo Anna winning the Breeders' Cup Distaff and then a Grade 1 turf race.

Of course, Fierceness can be beat. It's happened three times in his career, and he never looked like a winner in any of those losses. But the five wins have been spectacular, and his best game is the best of these. What's more, the presence of City of Troy, the current favorite in some international markets, could help his price.

As for this week's winners, Tapit Trice and Subsanador both moved up in my rankings, meaning I see them as more likely winners of the Classic now than I did before this weekend. Newgate enters the fray off his third-place finish behind Subsanador and National Treasure in the Grade 1 California Crown.