Breeders' Cup Classic fair odds: Fierceness against the world

Not much has changed among the Breeders' Cup Classic field since the final preps were run.

There is certainly some homerism going on in the international markets, as Ireland's City Of Troy is favored with European bookmakers while Forever Young is chalk in his native Japan. What that means for the American pari-mutuel market I do not know.

Looking at my fair odds, I'd honestly be surprised if Fierceness ends up an overlay. But if the Americans go as ham on City Of Troy and Forever Young as their compatriot bettors are, then maybe Fierceness will be worth a play.

Brass tacks on last year's 2-year-old male champion and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner is that at his best, Fierceness is the fastest horse of this group. Yes, there are the clunkers such as his Kentucky Derby as the favorite. But that is why he's 5-1 and not 5-2. The latter would be his price if you told me he is definitely running back to his Grade 1 Travers Stakes performance.

Tactically, I would not mind to see aggression from him. He can win this race gate to wire, down the backside or on the far turn. That versatility is part of the allure as well.

I think Señor Buscador can be worth a look. His return was an obvious prep, and the Grade 1 California Crown was disappointing, but this was always the goal. Del Mar plays against him, for sure, but the price will be too good to ignore based on what we know he's capable of.

As for the Japanese trio, I will be leaning on morning whispers as to how they look. I hate to be so dismissive of Derma Sotogake based on how well he ran behind White Abarrio last year, but that was an uninspiring prep. Ushba Tesoro I like, and again, if things go crazy on Forever Young, then maybe he's the play from the land of the rising sun.

As for City Of Troy, he is a legitimate international superstar, but there is no way he will be playable given my opinion of his chances versus his actual odds.