Breeders' Cup Classic fair odds: Familiar raider is likely underlay

The final piece of the Breeders' Cup Classic prep season fell into place on Wednesday when Forever Young won his first start since the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup in the Nippon TV Hai at Funabashi Racecourse in his native Japan.

Saudi Cup (G1) winner Forever Young will return to the U.S. for the Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 1 at Del Mar. He was third in both the Kentucky Derby and Classic last year.

The rub for Forever Young backers such as myself is that with the win Wednesday, we lose some of our price come Breeders' Cup.

In Classic future-wager odds ahead of Wednesday's race, Forever Young was absolutely actionable at 16-1 via Westgate. This is a horse who beat the world's best at the time in the Saudi Cup. The tank was empty for the Dubai World Cup upset by Hit Show, but if Forever Young is really going to be beyond the fifth choice in the Classic, then I do not see how he will not be worth a play.

That is not to say anyone ahead of him or even behind him is any slouch. Last year's Classic featured an all-3-year-old trifecta with eventual 3-year-old champion male Sierra Leone defeating champion 2-year-old male Fierceness in second and Forever Young finishing third. All three are back this year and have to contend with a similarly tough sophomore class of dual classic winner Sovereignty, multiple Grade 1 winner Journalism and Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner Baeza.

Sovereignty looks tough, but I do not see how he is anything but an underlay in this race. He is currently sub 2-1 at both Westgate and Caesars. Does he really win this race more than a third of the time? No way. 

A lot can change in four weeks, but as of right now I'm definitely on a heavy lean toward Forever Young.