Breeders' Cup Classic fair odds: Travers win boosts Arcangelo

When we last visited the Breeders' Cup Classic field, I saw Grade 1 Whitney Stakes winner White Abarrio as the most likely winner with a menagerie of 3-year-old males as the next most likely, expecting that the Travers (G1) would sort out most of those 3-year-olds.

The good news is, I was right about the Travers sorting things out. The bad news is, I was wrong about who is the best of the group.

Arcangelo silenced this doubter with an emphatic win in the mid-summer derby, backing up his Belmont Stakes win by disposing of champion Forte, Kentucky Derby winner Mage and Preakness Stakes winner National Treasure as well as the improving Disarm and Grade 1 winner Tapit Trice.

I still have White Abarrio as the most likely winner of the Classic. He has run the most impressive race so far, but of course, there are question marks with the long layoff and the distance. Speaking of a long layoff, I would not be surprised if Arcangelo goes his sire's route and trains up to the Classic from the Travers. Arrogate pulled that double in 2016.

As for the Travers also-rans, I downgraded Forte and Mage off their efforts, upgraded runner-up Disarm and third-place finisher Tapit Trice, and removed National Treasure from my top 20 completely.

I also should note that I priced my top 20 as if they are the 20 horses in the race, with no field option for all others. This line adds to 100 points, so if you were to use it for future wager purposes, then demand a premium because it does not include at least a dozen horses who have a chance of making the race, including those in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) this weekend at Saratoga.

Also this weekend is the Pacific Classic (G1), which is better represented currently than the aforementioned East Coast counterpart. We'll be back later this week with fair odds for both of those Classic preps and next week with Classic reaction to them.