Breeders’ Cup Classic: Who is peaking at the right time?
How do this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic hopefuls compare to past champions when measured by speed figures? Our data analysis reveals some surprising insights about who might be ready to deliver a championship-level performance.
Championship day performance: The gold standard
Since 2013, Breeders’ Cup Classic winners have averaged an Horse Racing Nation speed figure of 140, establishing a clear benchmark for the level of performance required to win America’s richest race. Three performers stand above the rest in terms of their Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning figures: Arrogate (150), Flightline (147), and Gun Runner (146). These numbers represent the standard for North American dirt horses at the classic distance.
However, the picture becomes more nuanced when examining recent winners. The last two Classics were captured with more modest figures: Sierra Leone (138) and White Abarrio (131). This suggests a potential shift in what constitutes a winning performance, opening the door for this year’s crop of contenders.
Peak Figure: Winners vs 2025
Sorted by peak figure - Gold = Past Winners | Purple = 2025 Contenders
Looking for upside potential
A good way to judge a horse’s current form cycle is to look at their last three starts. This gives a snapshot of their progress and a hint of what could be next. We’ve added the horses’ top speed figure this year, too, to add context.
The data reveals that several 2025 contenders have already produced figures this year that place them squarely in the conversation. Leading the pack is Journalism, whose 139 HRN speed figure posted in the Preakness Stakes actually exceeds the Classic-winning figures of three recent champions. Close behind stands Sovereignty (138), whose impressive figure from the Belmont Stakes equals Sierra Leone’s winning number from last year. Antiquarian (136) and Fierceness (135) round out a quartet of contenders who have shown championship-caliber ability in 2025.
2025 BC Classic: Last 3 Starts + Peak (13 Contenders)
Each horse shows: 3rd back | 2nd back | Most recent | Best of year
The championship year factor
It also helps to look at when the horse’s top speed figure was earned in relation to the Breeders’ Cup. In 2023, White Abarrio (137) earned his year top in the Whitney in August, but he did not race in the three months between then and the Breeders’ Cup. Authentic (140) hit his seasonal top in a second-place finish in the October Preakness. Knicks Go ran a 138 in July prior to his 139 Classic in 2021, adding two 125+ wins in between.
2025 Contenders: Figure Breakdown (13 Horses)
Last 3 starts, best 2025 figure, gap, and trajectory
| Horse | 3rd | 2nd | Last | Best | Gap | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journalism | 135 | 129 | 121 | 139 May |
-18 | Declining |
| Sovereignty | 138 | 136 | 137 | 138 Jun |
-1 | Mixed |
| Antiquarian | 124 | 127 | 136 | 136 Aug |
Peak | Improving |
| Sierra Leone | 126 | 132 | 135 | 135 Aug |
Peak | Improving |
| Fierceness | 120 | 124 | 126 | 135 May |
-9 | Improving |
| Baeza | 131 | 134 | 127 | 134 Jul |
-7 | Mixed |
| Highland Falls | 123 | 130 | 131 | 131 Aug |
Peak | Improving |
| Contrary Thinking | 120 | 41 anomaly |
121 | 121 Aug |
Peak | Mixed |
| Nevada Beach | 123 | 124 | 127 | 127 Sep |
Peak | Improving |
| Mindframe | 126 | 127 | 18 lost rider |
127 Jun |
N/A | Mixed |
At Peak (0 gap): Antiquarian, Sierra Leone, Highland Falls, Contrary Thinking, Nevada Beach
Improving: 5 of 11 horses trending upward
Note: Mindframe’s 18 (lost rider) is a race anomaly
The verdict
The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic shapes up as the most open edition in years. Based on our speed figure analysis, four contenders appear particularly well-positioned to deliver the necessary performance.
1. Journalism (139). His Preakness figure already matches championship level, but the question is if he can run back to it.
2. Sovereignty (138). Consistent pattern suggests possible further gains.
3. Antiquarian (136). Recent peak in August indicates he belongs, but it was a big jump forward.
4. Fierceness (135). Proven Grade 1 performer has tactical versatility and an upward trend
While the 2025 field lacks the transcendent talent of a Flightline or Arrogate, the competitive depth makes for a potentially thrilling betting race where small edges in form, fitness, and racing luck could prove decisive on North America’s biggest stage.
This analysis does not include Japan’s Forever Young. His worldwide credentials are well established with wins in the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby in 2024. Undefeated in six starts in his home country, Forever Young won the Saudi Cup this year and was third in Dubai. He comes into this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic with another dominant victory vs Japan foes. It is a limitation of our data that he only has two HRN speed figs - a 120 for his third-place finish in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and a 135 for his third-place finish in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.