Breeders' Cup Classic: Who has the best speed figures?

Did White Abarrio peak in the Grade 1 Whitney? This is an important question for speed-figure handicappers to answer when beginning their analysis of the 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic.

The career-high 110 Beyer, 132 TimeformUS and 116 HRN speed figures that he earned in the Whitney make the 4-year-old colt a standout in this race. But is there room for more improvement, or is regression on the horizon?

Conventional wisdom says regression is more likely. White Abarrio made his 14th career start in the Whitney. The leading trio of 3-year-olds, Arcangelo, Arabian Knight and Geaux Rocket Ride, have made a combined 15 career starts, giving them an edge in the upside department.

The Whitney also marked White Abarrio's first stakes win since the Florida Derby (G1) in April 2022. If one believes that White Abarrio will not repeat the lofty figures he earned last time and other lightly raced runners will continue their progression, then this race becomes very intriguing from a speed-figure prospective.

Seven runners have earned Beyer Speed Figures between 103 and 106 this year, and they do not include Arabian Knight or Geaux Rocket Ride, two of the top betting choices.

TimeformUS rated the Pacific Classic (G1), which Arabian Knight and Geaux Rocket Ride exit, more favorably. The 126 TimeformUS Figure earned by Arabian Knight is tied for third highest in the field. HRN's Speed Figures stamp Bright Future as an underrated contender, but TimeformUS does not view Bright Future and his 118 career-high figure in top regard.

With so much data to interpret, speed figures should be used to analyze patterns, progression and regression. But it is only one of many tools a handicapper may choose to use.

For example, speed figures point out Saudi Crown as superior horse to Arcangelo. As Saudi Crown likely will be a higher price between the two, some will feel this constitutes good value. Others will note that Arcangelo's proven ability to handle the distance and come from off the pace give him an edge over Saudi Crown and many others.

With a balanced field lacking a clear standout, do not forget to consider the possible international contenders; Ushba Tesoro, King of Steel and Derma Sotogake, whose speed figures were not available. 

Below is a closer look at this year's best Beyer Speed Figures, TimeformUS Figures and HRN Speed Figures for the prospective 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic field.

Beyer Speed Figures and TimeformUS Speed Figures are courtesy of Daily Racing Form.