Breeders’ Cup Classic odds: Sovereignty vs. recent history
If Nevada’s fixed-odds futures odds look anything like the pari-mutuels Saturday, the Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite will start shorter than 2-1 for the fifth time since 2014.
Sovereignty has held firm at 8-5 in Las Vegas, finishing at that price when Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada closed its market during the weekend. He stayed at 8-5 in live betting Sunday night at the Westgate Superbook.
1st to last: Ranking Breeders’ Cup Classic field.
In the last 11 years, 2015 winner American Pharoah at 7-10, 2016 runner-up California Chrome at 9-10 and 2021 third-place finisher Essential Quality at 9-5 were longer than 8-5 when they were post-time favorites in the Classic.
| BC Classic favorites | Odds | Pl. | Upset winner | Odds | Track |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Fierceness | 2.80 | 2nd | Sierra Leone | 6.90 | DMR |
| 2023 White Abarrio | 2.60 | 1st | SA | ||
| 2022 Flightline | .44 | 1st | KEE | ||
| 2021 Essential Quality | 1.90 | 3rd | Knicks Go | 3.20 | DMR |
| 2020 Tiz the Law | 3.20 | 6th | Authentic | 4.20 | KEE |
| 2019 McKinzie | 2.90 | 2nd | Vino Rosso | 4.60 | SA |
| 2018 Accelerate | 2.70 | 1st | CD | ||
| 2017 Arrogate | 2.10 | 5th | Gun Runner | 2.40 | DMR |
| 2016 California Chrome | .90 | 2nd | Arrogate | 1.70 | SA |
| 2015 American Pharoah | .70 | 1st | |||
| 2014 Shared Belief | 2.50 | 4th | Bayern | 6.10 | SA |
| 2013 Game On Dude | 1.70 | 9th | Mucho Macho Man | 4.00 | SA |
| 2012 Game On Dude | 1.30 | 7th | Fort Larned | 9.40 | SA |
| 2011 Flat Out | 3.60 | 5th | Drosselmeyer | 14.80 | CD |
| 2010 Zenyatta | 1.00 | 2nd | Blame | 5.20 | CD |
| 2009 Zenyatta | 2.80 | 1st | OSA | ||
| 2008 Curlin | .90 | 4th | Raven’s Pass | 13.50 | OSA |
| 2007 Street Sense | 2.50 | 4th | Curlin | 4.40 | MTH |
| 2006 Bernardini | 1.10 | 2nd | Invasor | 6.70 | CD |
| 2005 Saint Liam | 2.40 | 1st | BEL | ||
| 2004 Ghostzapper | 2.50 | 1st | LS | ||
| 2003 Medaglia d’Oro | 2.60 | 2nd | Pleasantly Perfect | 14.20 | SA |
| 2002 Medaglia d’Oro | 2.70 | 2nd | Volponi | 43.50 | AP |
| 2001 Aptitude | 2.35 | 1st | Tiznow | 6.90 | BEL |
| 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus | 1.20 | 6th | Tiznow | 9.20 | CD |
| 1999 Behrens | 2.30 | 7th | Cat Thief | 19.60 | GP |
| 1998 Skip Away | 1.90 | 6th | Awesome Again | 4.70 | CD |
| 1997 Skip Away | 1.80 | 1st | HOL | ||
| 1996 Cigar | .65 | 3rd | Alphabet Soup | 19.85 | WO |
| 1995 Cigar | .70 | 1st | BEL | ||
| 1994 Tabasco Cat | 3.50 | 2nd | Concern | 7.50 | CD |
| 1993 Bertrando | 1.20 | 2nd | Arcangues | 133.60 | SA |
| 1992 A.P. Indy | 2.10 | 1st | GP | ||
| 1991 Festin | 3.10 | 6th | Black Tie Affair | 4.00 | CD |
| 1990 Rhythm | 2.60 | 8th | Unbridled | 6.60 | BEL |
| 1989 Easy Goer | .50 | 2nd | Sunday Silence | 2.00 | GP |
| 1988 Alysheba | 1.50 | 1st | CD | ||
| 1987 Ferdinand | 1.00 | 1st | HOL | ||
| 1986 Turkoman | 1.60 | 2nd | Skywalker | 10.10 | SA |
| 1985 Chief’s Crown | 1.80 | 4th | Proud Truth | 7.40 | AQU |
| 1984 Slew O’ Gold* | .60 | 2nd | Wild Again | 31.30 | HOL |
| Mugatea* | .60 | 8th | |||
| *Coupled entry |
The only late money moving the Las Vegas odds in the past week came in on Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes winner Nevada Beach. The Bob Baffert-trained colt was cut from 30-1 to 25-1 at the Westgate.
Pacific Classic (G1) winner Fierceness held as the 4-1 second choice at the Westgate after closing at 6-1 at Caesars. Defending Classic winner Sierra Leone was 6-1 on Sunday night at the Westgate, the same odds as Japan-based colt Forever Young.
Both books culled their lists of Classic choices last week before Wednesday’s pre-entries did it for them. Still, the Westgate showed Disarm at 50-1 on Sunday night even though he was not among the possible starters. It also corrected the posting of 40-1 Contrary Thinking, the Chad Brown-trained rabbit for Sierra Leone who was listed as the filly Contrary last week.
Both the Westgate and Caesars are expected to reopen new fixed-odds markets for the Classic after entries are taken and post positions are drawn Monday afternoon at Del Mar. Where the pools until now have been action at the time of any bet, the new ones will offer refunds for horses who do not start the $7 million race Saturday.
These were the Breeders’ Cup Classic futures odds showing Sunday night on the Westgate betting app in Nevada with Disarm omitted. Full closing odds for Caesars were not available.
| BC Classic | WG | Last race, track | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereignty | 8-5 | 1st Travers (G1), SAR | Bill Mott |
| Fierceness | 4-1 | 1st Pacific Classic (G1), DMR | Todd Pletcher |
| Forever Young | 6-1 | 1st Nippon TV Hai, FUN | Yoshito Yahagi |
| Sierra Leone | 6-1 | 2nd Jockey Club GC (G1), SAR | Chad Brown |
| Journalism | 12-1 | 2nd Pacific Classic (G1), DMR | Michael McCarthy |
| Baeza | 14-1 | 1st Pa. Derby (G1), PRX | John Shirreffs |
| Mindframe | 14-1 | dnf Jockey Club GC (G1), SAR | Todd Pletcher |
| Antiquarian | 25-1 | 1st Jockey Club GC (G1), SAR | Todd Pletcher |
| Nevada Beach | 25-1 | 1st Goodwood (G1), SA | Bob Baffert |
| Contrary Thinking | 40-1 | 6th Jockey Club GC (G1), SAR | Chad Brown |