Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025: Ranking the field 1st to last
Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025 is one of the deepest editions of the race in the past decade as it features horses who already are stars. Unfortunately for them, Saturday’s $7 million renewal at Del Mar also includes a superstar named Sovereignty.
This is how the probable field of 10 ranks from first to last, led by the likely horse of the year.
1. Sovereignty. Already the futures favorite for the Classic, Sovereignty looks like a handful as he looks to add to his incredible year. The Kentucky Derby winner thrives at the Classic distance and continues to get better and better. This will mark his first start against older foes, but this crop of 3-year-olds has been strong, and he looks more than up to the challenge. He proved in the Jim Dandy (G2) that he still can win even when the circumstances are not in his favor. It was the race between a big effort in the Belmont Stakes and a target goal of the Travers Stakes. The distance of the race was more favorable to Baeza than it was to him. Sovereignty was wet on the track and had a wide trip in a race with no pace. This was the time to beat Sovereignty, and he still won. It seems the only way he could lose is a slow pace. Contrary Thinking was entered to help Sierra Leone, but his presence will help prevent a slow pace scenario, also helping Sovereignty. Despite the strength of this year’s race, do not be afraid to single this colt.
2. Fierceness. Brilliant but inconsistent has always been his reputation. This colt’s last two efforts are a perfect example of this. He could not have been worse than he was in the Whitney (G1) when taking the lead turning for home and fading to fifth. He could not have been better in the Pacific Classic (G1) when dominating Journalism despite early trouble. What was most impressive about the Pacific Classic was his ability to rate off horses and win despite adversity, which he was not able to do last year. He likes Del Mar and has a tactical edge on Sovereignty. He is not as reliable of an exotics key as the more consistent Sovereignty or Sierra Leone, but if he brings his best, and if he sits a good trip just off the rabbit, he has the best chance of defeating Sovereignty.
3. Sierra Leone. The defending champ likes this track and this distance and will have pace to run at with his stablemate leading the way. He never has been worse than third in 13 career starts and is a strong contender for exotic wagers. He has won only 1 of 4 starts this year, and though he is a strong closer, I believe Sovereignty is a better closer, so a fast early pace just may ensure him a spot underneath.
4. Journalism. He is a 3-year-old version of Sierra Leone. The son of Curlin fights every fight, loves the distance and never runs a bad race. He does seem to have lost a bit of his punch since his dramatic Preakness effort, and the strain of the Triple Crown may have taken a toll on him. He has not been able to beat Sovereignty yet, and his rival continues to progress. I do not like his chances to win, but he easily could sneak into the trifecta or superfecta.
5. Forever Young. He is the hardest horse to evaluate in this field. His best could put him squarely in the mix, but it is hard to be confident that he is as good as he was when he won the Saudi Cup (G1) early this year. He followed that with a subpar effort in the Dubai Would Cup (G1) and then defeated average horses by an average margin in his easy comeback effort off a layoff. I give him a better chance to actually win this race than I do Sierra Leone or Journalism due to his high peak, but his current form is less reliable than those runners when examining exotics possibilities.
6. Baeza. John Shirreffs’s well-bred 3-year-old has done nothing wrong except being born in the wrong year. Most years he would be a prime contender in the Classic as an improving colt, but he has proven to be a notch below Sovereignty and Journalism thus far. Now he must take on older rivals as well. It would not be surprising to see him get a piece underneath, but it is hard to imagine him turning the tables on Sovereignty.
7. Mindframe. The son of Constitution always has had the talent to compete with the best in his crop, but I do not think this is his best distance. I was not a fan of the way he finished last year’s Haskell (G1) or Belmont Stakes or this year’s Stephen (G1). He idles a bit when he takes the lead and needs a perfectly timed ride to be successful against this group. Add the fact he has not truly run since June, and there are too many factors working against this runner.
8. Nevada Beach. This improving 3-year-old looked good capturing the Goodwood (G1) and has the potential to make a lot of noise as a 4-year-old next year, but he may not have the foundation for this type of class leap at this stage in his career. The Goodwood was the first time he ever faced graded-stakes competition, and he likely will find these waters too deep, even with Bob Baffert calling the shots.
9. Antiquarian. This colt was gifted the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) on a silver platter. Sierra Leone, White Abarrio, Disarm and Highland Falls all were interfered with, and Mindframe lost his rider when Phileas Fogg came over at the start of the race. That left Phileas Fogg, Contrary Thinking and Antiquarian as the only horses with a fair chance. Contrary Thinking was only in the race to set a fast pace, and Phileas Fogg was the one to chase this fast pace, leaving Antiquarian in a can’t-lose situation. His prior form was decent but not nearly good enough to compete with these. Do not get fooled by his lofty 108 Beyer Speed Figure via Daily Racing Form.
10. Contrary Thinking. As the likely pacesetter of this race, his job will be to go as fast as he can for as far as he can. This may last only about a mile before he starts fading as this allowance winner takes on the best horses in the world. This gelding is only in the race to ensure an honest pace for his stablemate Sierra Leone, and anything other than a last-place finish would be a surprise. A victory may be the biggest upset in horse-racing history.