Breeders’ Cup Classic: Odds & analysis for $7 million race
The Grade 1, $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 1 at Del Mar drew a pre-entered field of 11 headed by 3-year-old Sovereignty, the probable favorite. Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Forever Young, the top three finishers from last year’s Classic at the San Diego-area track, also are in the field.
In the past 11 years, the Classic was won by five 3-year-olds, Sierra Leone, Authentic, Arrogate, American Pharoah and Bayern. Four were trained by Bob Baffert. In the 41-year history of the Breeders’ Cup, 14 sophomores were victorious in the Classic.
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The Classic is one of the original Breeders’ Cup races from 1984, and since, 12 favorites took the 1 1/4-mile test. The winner went on to be named the horse of the year 18 times. The Breeders’ Cup makes its fourth stop in the last nine years at Del Mar, where Sierra Leone, Gun Runner and Knicks Go won the Classic.
To help make a wagering plan, here is an early full analysis for the pre-entered field of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff are tentative awaiting the final entries, jockey assignments and the post-position draw, which will be announced on Monday.
The Classic will be run as race 9 of 12 on Nov. 1 with post time scheduled for 6:25 p.m. EDT. The field is in alphabetical order with sires, trainers, most recent jockeys, records, earnings and last starts.
Antiquarian, 20-1. Preservationist, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 9: 4-3-0, $944,100, 1st Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Antiquarian became a Grade 1 winner in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when he was outside of the troubled start in which the two favorites Mindframe and Sierra Leone took the worst of it. Before that he finished second in the Blame (G3) and the Suburban (G2). He is likely to go off with the longest odds of his career which seems fair against this Classic field. Antiquarian is the first of four in the field for Todd Pletcher. Pletcher won at the Breeders’ Cup 15 times including Vino Rosso in the 2019 Classic. Toss.
Baeza, 15-1. McKenzie, John Shirreffs, Hector Berrios, 8: 2-3-2, $1,503,500, 1st Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Baeza is part of the trio of 3-year-olds that dominated the division this year. He got his Grade 1 victory in the Pennsylvania Derby after racing behind Sovereignty and Journalism in a sequence of races that included the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont and Jim Dandy (G2). He is another one that could have the have the highest price in what will be his ninth start. Amongst the three Breeders’ Cup victories for trainer John Shirreffs is the 2006 Classic with Zenyatta. Use underneath.
Contrary Thinking, 50-1. Into Mischief, Chad Brown, Kendrick Carmouche, 7: 2-0-0, $140,040, 6th Jockey Club Gold Cup. Contrary Thinking returns in his role as a rabbit for Sierra Leone. Contrary Thinking was entered in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Whitney to make sure that there would be fast early fractions for his stablemate. It worked in the Whitney as Sierra Leone was able to rally from last in that field of five. He will get hustled out of the gate to make sure that the horses that prefer to be forwardly placed will be pressured. Toss.
Fierceness, 6-1. City of Light, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 13: 7-2-1, $5,155,320, 1st Pacific Classic (G1). Say what you want about Fierceness but his record now shows three Grade 1 wins and more than $5.1 million in earnings. Following his disappointing fifth-place finish in the Whitney (G1), Pletcher sent him to California where he dominated a Pacific Classic (G1) field that included Journalism. That win made it clear the Repole Stable home-bred loves the Del Mar racing surface remembering that he had the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year as the 5-2 favorite when he finished second behind Sierra Leone. In a career filled with Grade 1 races he only failed to hit the board three times. Win contender.
Forever Young, 8-1. Real Steel, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 12: 9-0-3, $15,718,590, 1st Nippon TV Hai. Forever Young’s $15.7 million in earnings puts him sixth in all-time earnings for horses who made an appearance in North America. His two starts in the U.S. produced a pair of thirds in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Forever Young has three starts this year beginning with a win in the rich Saudi Cup (G1) in February followed by a third in the Dubai World Cup (G1). Following a six-month layoff he prepped for this year’s Classic with a win in Japan in a stakes race that was put together for him. He is yet another one that could well go off at his highest odds. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi won two Breeders’ Cup races in 2012. Win contender.
Journalism, 10-1. Curlin, Michael McCarthy, Jose Ortiz, 10: 6-3-1, $3,998,880, 2nd Pacific Classic (G1). To his credit Journalism opted to face older horses for the first time in the Pacific Classic where he was second behind Fierceness going the 10-furlong distance against a seven-horse field. Top-three finishes in all 10 of his races include three Grade 1 victories in the Haskell, Preakness and Santa Anita Derby. Journalism got a short freshening after the Pacific Classic at the end of August which came after a seven-race sequence of graded stakes beginning in March. For a horse that has never gone off at odds longer then 9-2, he is listed at 10-1 on the morning line and is likely to be the fifth choice at best. Trainer Michael McCarthy has two Breeders’ Cup wins. Use underneath.
Locked, 20-1. Gun Runner, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 11: 6-1-3, $1,911,825, 1st Woodward (G2). Locked is a two-time Grade 1 winner as a 2-year-old in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and this year in the March running of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) at the Classic distance. Since, he was fourth in the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs and third at the Suburban (G2) which was run at Saratoga. Locked got back to the winner’s circle in the Woodward (G2) as part of a three-horse field. Toss.
Mindframe, 12-1. Constitution, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 8: 5-2-0, $1,844,580, did not finish Jockey Club Gold Cup. Mindframe lost Ortiz at the start of the Jockey Club in what was supposed to be his Breeders’ Cup prep race. He won his first three starts of the year starting in March in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), then the Churchill Downs (G1) and the Stephen Foster (G1). Mindframe resumed his training two weeks after the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The third Pletcher runner is listed at 12-1 in the morning line where previously 5-1 was the highest odds of his career in last year’s Belmont Stakes. Win contender.
Nevada Beach, 30-1. Omaha Beach, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 4: 3-1-0, $296,500, 1st Goodwood (G1). Nevada Beach will be the least experienced horse in the Classic field. The winner of 3 out of 4 races in California, Nevada Beach has never faced a field with more than six horses. He won a maiden as the favorite in April which is typical of Bob Baffert runners. In June he was second in the Affirmed, won the Los Alamitos Derby three weeks later and became a Grade 1 winner in the Goodwood where he defeated a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner in Full Serrano. Baffert has 19 Breeders’ Cup wins in his career with four in the Classic from 2014 to 2020. Toss.
Sierra Leone, 4-1. Gun Runner, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 13: 5-5-3, $7,006,200, 2nd Jockey Club Gold Cup. Sierra Leone will try to become only the second horse to win the Classic twice and would join Tiznow, who did it in 2000 and 2001. In his 13 starts Sierra Leone never has run worse than third. Since his maiden win in his first start as a 3-year-old, he has run only in Grade 1 or 2 races and gathered three Grade 1 wins in the Blue Grass, the Classic and most recently in August in the Whitney. In the Gold Cup he got far behind after avoiding the fallen rider and had to race wide the rest of the way as he turned in his usual late rally to finish second. Chad Brown won 19 Breeders’ Cup races since 2008 after last year’s Classic. Win contender.
Sovereignty, 8-5. Into Mischief, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 9: 6-2-0, $5,835,300, 1st Travers (G1). Sovereignty heads to the Classic as the top-ranked Thoroughbred in the weekly National Thoroughbred Racing Association poll with all but two of the no. 1 votes. Since breaking his maiden in his third start in the Street Sense (G3) as a 2-year-old, the son of Into Mischief won five of his last six starts including the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont and the Travers (G1). Last seen at Saratoga, he overwhelmed the field of five in the Travers by 10 lengths. The obvious negative in Sovereignty’s record is that the Classic will be his first start against older horses. Bill Mott’s hall of fame career includes 15 Breeders’ Cup titles including Cigar and Drosselmeyer in the Classic. Top choice.
Summary: The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic features a match-up between last year’s top three finishers who were 3-year-olds and this year’s trio of sophomores lead by the probable favorite Sovereignty. It is a tough group of six horses who are legitimate win contenders.
Brown and co-owner Peter Brant entered Contrary Thinking to try and make sure that Sierra Leone has a fast pace to set-up his late run. Sovereignty was nothing but impressive since he won the Kentucky Derby. Those two lead the way.
Sierra Leone is a probable top three finisher as he will be full of run down the stretch making the last move of the late runners. He is a must use in the exacta and trifecta along with Journalism and Baeza. However, Sovereignty is the top choice.