Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025: Analyzing the top speed figures

Is there a horse fast enough to defeat Sovereignty? This is the question handicappers will consider when evaluating the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The field is loaded with quality runners who could win an average renewal of this race as Sierra Leone did last year, but there is a good chance Sovereignty could be ascending to a level of greatness that is anything but typical.

Sovereignty certainly passes the eye test when watching replays of his performances, but is he running as fast as he appears to be? The answer is a resounding yes. According to Daily Racing Form, he has run four consecutive Beyer Speed Figures of 104 or higher with an imposing 115 number in his romping Travers (G1) win in his most recent start. He has run three consecutive TimeformUS Figures of 125 or higher and three straight Horse Racing Nation figures of 136 or higher. He is fast, consistent and only getting better.

Among his main rivals, the fastest race this year was produced by Forever Young in the Saudi Cup (G1). That gigantic effort in his first start as a 4-year-old earned a 131 Timeform Rating. With no Beyer, TimeformUS Figure or HRN figure, it is to difficult to compare this effort with his counterparts. A good formula to convert Timeform Ratings to Beyers is to deduct 12-15 points. Even when reducing on the high end of this scale, the Beyer would convert to around a 116, which would be the highest in the field.

This was not a fluke effort as Forever Young showed the ability to be right in the mix with the best 3-year-olds in the country last year. Forever Young is fast enough to be competitive on his best day, but the question remains can he replicate that performance?

The Saudi Cup was run in February, and he has followed that with only two starts since. He was a flat third in the Dubai World Cup (G1) and won a prep race against subpar competition. The Saudi Cup effort definitely took something out of him. He could snap back to his best after a freshening, but he also could fail to return to his prime, much like Arrogate following his monster effort in the Dubai World Cup.

After Sovereignty and Forever Young, there is not much separating the next group of contenders based off of speed figures. Sierra Leone, Locked, Antiquarian, Journalism and Fierceness all have run Beyers between 107 and 109 in 2025.

For those looking for a separator, TimeformUS gave Fierceness a 134 number for his Alysheba (G2) win in May, which was higher than Sovereignty’s high of 133. HRN figures rated Journalism’s Preakness Stakes win a 139, which is higher than Sovereignty’s best of 138. Fierceness defeated Journalism in the Pacific Classic (G1) when they went head to head in August at Del Mar.

There is no reason to think Sovereignty will not continue his improving pattern in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and if that is the case, everyone else is running for second. Assuming Forever Young does not reproduce his Saudi Cup effort, the race for second is wide open led by last year’s one-two finishers Sierra Leone and Fierceness.

Here is a closer look at this year’s best Beyer, TimeformUS and HRN figures for the prospective 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic field.

Beyer Speed Figures are courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

*Estimated Beyer Speed Figure based upon Forever Young’s Timeform number.