Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025: Analyzing preps & trip notes
Watching replays of prep races is an important step to unlocking potential gems in a deep, talented field like the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic, but it is a time-consuming task. Reading this analysis may save that precious time. The major prep races on the second half of the 2025 Classic calendar are reviewed with analysis and trip notes for each race.
Stephen Foster (G1), June 28, 1st Mindframe, 2nd Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone broke a bit slowly and settled into last behind an average pace. Mindframe broke well and sat a cozy trip in second behind First Mission. Sierra Leone, sensing that the pace was not overly quick, made an early move into third to put himself into contention. Mindframe put First Mission away turning for home and opened up on Sierra Leone who spun wide and lost momentum after the early move. Mindframe seems to be a horse that gets bored once he makes the lead as he idled a bit like he did last year in the Belmont Stakes and Haskell Stakes. This allowed Sierra Leone to cut into the margin late, but Mindframe was too far in front at this point. Mindframe has a ton of talent, but the way he finishes races does make one question his ability to be at his best at the Classic distance. He also seems to need a perfectly timed ride. Sierra Leone proved that he was rounding back into his best form, that 9 furlongs is too short and that he needs a fast pace to run at. It was an ok race for him that led to a better performance with better circumstances in the Whitney.
Los Alamitos Derby, June 28, 1st Nevada Beach
Nevada Beach sat a nice trip just outside his stablemate Varney and won the way a progressing colt should against overmatched foes. The 2025 Los Alamitos Derby was an incredibly weak race. It featured a four-horse field and was a walk over for Nevada Beach. Runner-up Varney had one Pimlico maiden win from six starts and returned to run fourth in allowance company. Rank is an 0-for-15 maiden. It’s a Factor was entered to fill the race and was practically eased. He finished sixth in a Los Alamitos claiming race in his last start.
Suburban Stakes (G2), July 4, 2nd Antiquarian, 3rd Locked
Phileas Fogg set reasonable fractions and got away with a pretty easy lead in a race without much pace presence. Antiquarian sat a nice trip in second throughout. He closed well to make it close late, but could not get by Phileas Fogg who is a notch below the group Antiquarian will face in the Breeders’ Cup. Locked saved ground on the inside and was completely flat when asked to run in the lane, finishing a distant third. He did not have much pace to run at, but was non-competitive for the second race in a row following his Santa Anita Handicap win.
Haskell Stakes (G1), July 19, 1st Journalism
Journalism broke OK and settled near the back of an average early pace. He made a long, sustained bid to get closer into contention and found himself a wide third turning for home. Knowing the furious closing kick he had shown in previous races, it seemed like he would win easily at the top of the stretch, but it took him a long time to quicken into gear. He eventually did and surged past Goal Oriented and Gosger to win. Nine furlongs is shorter than his best distance and Monmouth can be a tricky track for closers so he deserves credit for showing his heart, but it was a little concerning that he had to work so hard with a clean trip to defeat the same horses he did in the Preakness Stakes when he had an awful trip with not much of a difference in winning margin. Is the Haskell as sign that Journalism peaked after a tough Triple Crown or is it an example of his grit when maybe not fully cranked up?
Jim Dandy (G2), July 26, 1st Sovereignty, 2nd Baeza
Out of all of Sovereignty’s wins this year, this race impressed me the most. He did not beat the level of competition he defeated in the Kentucky Derby or Belmont Stakes and did not open up on the field like he did in the Travers Stakes, but rather he won when the circumstances were not in his favor. In football terms, this was a trap game. It was the race between a big effort in the Belmont Stakes and a target goal of the Travers Stakes. The distance of the race was more favorable to Baeza than it was to him. Sovereignty was wet on the track and had a wide trip in a race with no pace. Baeza looked great, was working lights out, and saved ground with a nice trip. This was the time to beat Sovereignty. Baeza was primed for the moment and he simply was not good enough. Baeza is a very nice colt, but if he couldn’t beat Sovereignty this day, he is not going to in the Breeders’ Cup. Then again, no one may be able to beat Sovereignty going forward.
Whitney (G1), Aug. 2, 1st Sierra Leone, 5th Fierceness
Fierceness broke great and sat a distant third behind two long shot dueling leaders. He could not have drawn up a better trip and looked like he was set to win turning for home before coming up absolutely empty in the stretch. It was a very poor effort from Fierceness who is known to throw in occasional clunkers. Sierra Leone had a fast early pace in a race where multiple horses made big middle moves into that early pace, the perfect recipe for a deep closer. He did his job well, making the last move to close strongly to win, but it did not dispel any notions that he needs circumstances to go right for him to be at his best. He deserves credit for defeating a strong field with Fierceness, Highland Falls, Skippylongstocking, White Abarrio all finishing behind Sierra Leone.
Travers (G1), Aug. 23, 1st Sovereignty
Sovereignty broke OK and was a close last for the first half of the race before making a mid-race move into third. Turning for home he headed Bracket Buster for the lead and looked like he may have a challenge on his hands for a split second before kicking it into high gear and running by the competition like they were standing still. He thrives at the Classic distance and was getting better and better as the race progressed. Bracket Buster returned to win the Oklahoma Derby (G3) and Magnitude, who was a distant third, returned to run second in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). This was far from the best Travers field, but the way Sovereignty won, it is fair to say he may be one of the best Travers winners.
Pacific Classic (G1), Aug. 30, 1st Fierceness, 2nd Journalism
With the defection of Nysos this became a match race between the two favorites. Neither had a desirable trip as Journalism fell way too far behind the early pace and Fierceness ducked in and almost hit the temporary rail at the beginning of the race. Despite being far back, Journalism did have a solid pace to run into and he was not going to beat Fierceness on this day. Fierceness does not always bring his best effort, but this was arguably his most impressive effort to date. He overcame early adversity, sat patiently behind horses and finished strongly. He has run well at Del Mar and if he repeats his Pacific Classic performance, he will certainly be a factor. This was a decent effort from Journalism, but he had nothing of note finishing behind him and questions still persist if he has peaked a bit since his gallant Preakness win.
Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), Aug. 31, 1st Antiquarian, 2nd Sierra Leone, dnf Mindframe
This was certainly the most eventful of all prep races. Phileas Fogg broke sideways into Contrary Thinking, starting a chain reaction that led to Mindframe losing his jockey, White Abarrio losing action for a second as two jockeys were on his back, Highland Falls and Disarm steading and Sierra Leone leaping to avoid the fallen rider. The only horses not interfered with were Phileas Fogg, who caused the issues, and Antiquarian, who was the only horse outside of him. The stars truly aligned for Antiquarian who sat a perfect trip in a race where all of his main rivals were compromised. Though he has continued to improve, I do not give him much credit for winning this race and consider his prior form to be a better indicator of his ability. Sierra Leone did have a strong pace to run into with his support animal Contrary Thinking setting the fractions, but he was compromised at the start enough to make me still believe he will defeat Antiquarian when they square off again. This race was a wash for Mindframe and now his biggest concern is fitness with his last true race coming in June. After all the dust was settled, my opinion of Antiquarian and Sierra Leone did not change after this race and may opinion of Mindframe dropped slightly, only because he needed to get a strong race into him.
Pennsylvania Derby (G1), Sept. 20, 1st Baeza
Baeza broke a half-step slowly and found himself near the back of the field early. He gradually moved up behind an honest pace and made a wide sweeping move just before the top of the stretch to get into contention. He put away Goal Orientated and drew off to win comfortably. Magnitude had a bit of a strange trip as the usual front-runner was shuffled back before coming on again to run second. He would have likely cut into Baeza’s winning margin a bit with a better trip. Baeza continues to develop in the right direction and caught a field he could beat without any other Breeders’ Cup entrants in it.
Goodwood (G1), Sept. 27, 1st Nevada Beach
I will give the Bob Baffert trainee credit. He went from facing mules in the Los Alamitos Derby to the defending Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner and handled the jump in class like a pro. Nevada Beach broke well and settled fourth before making a clever early move to 2nd to keep Full Serrano in his sights. He sat a good trip right off Full Serrano and was able to put away Full Serrano late to win. Privman and First Mission finished third and fourth. It is possible that Full Serrano is not quite as good as he was last year and also possible that he is a better horse at a mile, but nonetheless it was a strong win over a quality opponent. Nevada Beach still has a ways to go in terms of speed figures to match his main rivals and the Breeders’ Cup Classic may be too much too soon, but I was impressed with this rapidly improving 3-year-old.
Woodward (G2), Sept. 27, 1st Locked
Phileas Fogg got away with an easy lead once again, much like in the Suburban Stakes, in this paceless three horse field. This time around he was run down by Locked, who showed a much better closing kick than he had in recent races. Though he only defeated two rivals, it was impressive to see him run down a loose leader. The waters get much deeper in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but it was a positive move forward for Locked who has showed he is capable of running races that would make him competitive.
Nippon TV Hai, Oct. 1, 1st Forever Young
This race marked the return of Forever Young who had not raced since the Dubai World Cup. As the Dubai World Cup was a subpar effort, it was important to see him come back and win against inferior competition to show he had not lost a step after his Saudi Cup win. He did just that in this race and it is hard to gauge what we learned. Forever Young broke well and sat fourth early. He moved willingly through the field and took the lead in the stretch when called upon. He was likely not cranked up for this race and beat average horses by an average margin without being asked much. He needed this race, which was vital for his fitness and now enters as the biggest unknown in the race. This was a good race for the horse, but did not prove much for handicappers wondering which version of Forever Young will show up at Del Mar.