Breeders’ Cup Classic 2023: Early odds and analysis

The $6 million 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic drew a pre-entered field of 14 led by the 3-year-old Arcangelo. In the last 10 years, the Classic was won by four 3-year-olds, Authentic, Arrogate, American Pharoah and Bayern, all trained by Bob Baffert. In Breeders’ Cup history, 13 sophomores were victorious in the featured race.

The Classic is one of the original Breeders’ Cup races from 1984, and 11 favorites have won the 1 1/4-mile test. The winner went on to be named the horse of the year 18 times. The Breeders’ Cup returns for the 11th time to Santa Anita, where in the past a trio of 3-year-olds won the Classic.

To help make a wagering plan, here is an early full analysis for the pre-entered field of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff are tentative awaiting the final entries, jockey assignments and post-position draw, which will be announced on Monday.

The field in alphabetical order with the jockey listed from their most recent race.

Arabian Knight, 9-2. Uncle Mo, Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 4: 3-0-1, $1,244,275. Arabian Knight became a Grade 1 winner in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in September with a front-end effort at the 10-furlong distance of the Classic. The son of Uncle Mo has three wins in four career starts at three tracks. After winning his first two races, he was out of competition for six months and came back to finish third in the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park. Arabian Knight has the home-track advantage coming out of the Bob Baffert barn and has been posting fast and long workouts. Baffert won the Classic four times as part of his 18 Breeders’ Cup victories. Win contender.

Arcangelo, 7-2. Arrogate, Jena Antonucci, Javier Castellano, 6: 4-1-0, $1,754,900. Arcangelo won his last four starts with stalking trips going back to his maiden victory at Gulfstream Park in March and then in the Peter Pan (G3), Belmont Stakes and Travers (G1). Trainer Jena Antonucci is a Breeders’ Cup rookie and sent Arcangelo to Santa Anita in the beginning of October to acclimate to the track and have plenty of time to recover from the cross-country trip. Probable betting favorite.

Bright Future, 15-1. Curlin, Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano, 7: 4-0-2, $716,940. Bright Future got his first stakes victory during the final weekend of the Saratoga meeting in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) when he pressed the pace, got the lead and hung on to win by a nose. The son of Curlin will have to face the toughest field of the year for older dirt horses. Trainer Todd Pletcher won 14 times in the Breeders’ Cup, including the Classic in 2019 with Vino Rosso. Toss.

Charge It, 20-1. Tapit, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 12: 4-3-0, $801,600. Charge It’s victory in the Suburban (G2) at Belmont Park in July came in the midst of several fourth- and fifth-place finishes in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), Met Mile (G1), Whitney (G1) and Woodward (G2). Toss.

Derma Sotogake, 20-1. Mind Your Biscuits, Hidetaka Otonashi, Christophe Lemaire, 9: 4-0-2, $1,162,164. Derma Sotogake has not raced since he finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby. He qualified for the Derby when he ran off to win the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan by more than five lengths. Running in the Classic without a race for five months will be a difficult task for Japan-based 3-year-old. Toss.

Geaux Rocket Ride, 6-1. Candy Ride, Richard Mandella, Mike Smith, 5: 3-2-0, $1,236,200. Geaux Rocket Ride is one of the 3-year-olds in the field and became a Grade 1 winner with a stalking trip in the Haskell Stakes, where he beat Arabian Knight and Kentucky Derby winner Mage. He took on older horses for the first time when he fell a neck short of winning the Pacific Classic. The son of Candy Ride missed two weeks of training in the beginning of October after spiking a fever. Trainer Richard Mandella has nine Breeders’ Cup victories, including the Classic in 2003 with Pleasantly Perfect. Win contender.

King of Steel, 12-1. Wootton Bassett, Roger Varian, Frankie Dettori, 6: 2-1-1, $828,294. King of Steel also was pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, which was the first preference. Will run in the Turf.

Mage, 20-1. Good Magic, Gustavo Delgado, Flavien Prat, 7: 2-2-1, $2,507,450. Mage won the Kentucky Derby at 15-1 when he rallied from far back to handle the 1 1/4-mile distance. Since the Derby, he was third in the Preakness, second in the Haskell and seventh in the Travers. He has been training in Kentucky since running in Saratoga. Mage is part of a group that has not won a race since their victories in the run for the roses. He probably will come with the longest odds of his career in the Classic. Trainer Gustavo Delgado had one prior appearance in the Breeders’ Cup. Toss.

Proxy, 15-1. Tapit, Michael Stidham, Joel Rosario, 19: 6-7-2, $2,224,970. Proxy was last seen finishing a nose behind Bright Future in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. His six career victories include the Clark (G1) at Churchill Downs in 2022. The 5-year-old has his best results when he can get into a stalking position. His more than $2 million in earnings came from a career of 15 top-three finishes from 19 starts. No doubt this will be the biggest challenge of his career. Trainer Michael Stidham had one prior runner in the world championships. Toss.

Saudi Crown, 15-1. Always Dreaming, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 5: 3-2-0, $817,085. Saudi Crown is two noses short of being unbeaten in five starts. He won his first two career starts in Kentucky in the spring in a maiden and then an allowance. His next two starts were in those close finishes in the Dwyer (G3) and the Jim Dandy (G2). He won the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) with a front-end effort and now will have to face older horses in a stakes race for the first time. Trainer Brad Cox had 31 runners in the Breeders’ Cup since 2014, with nine victories led by Knicks Go in the 2021 Classic. Live long shot.

Señor Buscador, 20-1. Mineshaft, Todd Fincher, Geovanni Franco, 14: 6-0-2, $763,427. Señor Buscador won the San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar with a deep closing move and then was fourth in the Pacific Classic and third in the Awesome Again (G1). Last year he finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Trainer Todd Fincher had runners in two prior Breeders’ Cup races. Toss.

Ushba Tesoro, 6-1. Orfevre, Noboru Takagi, Yuga Kawada, 30: 10-1-5, $9,540,345. Ushba Tesoro won his last six starts, with five of them in Japan and the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March. The 6-year-old was off for six months and was able to get a prep race in Japan. This will be the first Breeders’ Cup runner for trainer Noboru Takagi and his first trip to the U.S., and it will be only the second time outside of Japan for Ushba Tesoro. Win contender.

White Abarrio, 8-1. Race Day, Rick Dutrow Jr., Irad Ortiz Jr., 13: 6-1-2, $1,826,350. White Abarrio moved to the barn of trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. just before the Met Mile, where he finished third. About two months later the 4-year-old ran the best race of his career when he pressed the pace and won the Whitney by more than six lengths with his top speed figure. Dutrow opted to train White Abarrio up to the Classic. A look at his past performances shows eight Grade 1 races from his last 10 starts. The 1 1/4-mile distance remains a question since his only start going that far was in the Kentucky Derby, where he was stuck wide the entire way and never got closer than 10th. Dutrow won three times at the world championships including the 2005 Classic with Saint Liam. White Abarrio was sent to Santa Anita in September to prepare for the Breeders’ Cup. Win contender.

Zandon, 12-1. Upstart, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 13: 3-6-3, $2,140,000. Zandon won the Blue Grass (G1) in 2022 and then finished second or third eight times in graded stakes, including the Kentucky Derby, before winning the Woodward at Aqueduct in October. Consistent late-closing moves allowed the son of Upstart to earn $2.1 million. Use underneath.

AE 1. Clapton, 20-1. Brethren, Chad Summers, Cristian Torres, 24: 6-4-6, $823,450. Clapton is first on the also-eligible list and will get into the field because King of Steel is first preference into the Turf. Clapton changed to the barn of Chad Summers during the summer and finished fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup before his victory in the Lukas Classic (G2) at Churchill. Clapton rallied from 10 lengths back to win the Lukas by a head, and that pushed him on the road to the Classic. Summers went to the world championships twice with the sprinter Mind Your Biscuits. Live long shot.

AE 2. Skippylongstocking, first preference Dirt Mile

AE 3. Dreamlike, first preference Dirt Mile

AE 4. Missed the Cut

Summary: The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic shapes up as a clash between 3-year-olds and older horses. The pre-entered field of 14 includes seven sophomores who all are winners of Grade 1 or 2 races such as the Pacific Classic, Travers, Belmont Stakes, Pennsylvania Derby, Haskell Stakes, Kentucky Derby and UAE Derby.

Make no mistake about it, the older horses in this field have won plenty of big races also. For most of the year this division was led by Cody’s Wish who will run in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after he finished third behind White Abarrio racing two turns in the Whitney.

Ushba Tesoro will make his first start in North America and only his second outside of Japan. He won his last six races, including the Dubai World Cup in March.

Arcangelo has four victories in a row with the last two in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. Trainer Jena Antonucci made all of the right moves with the late-developing son of Arrogate since he broke his maiden in March. Arcangelo is capable of taking another step forward to become another 3-year-old to win the Classic.