Breeders’ Cup Classic 2022: Odds and analysis
The $6 million 2022 Breeders’ Cup Classic drew a field of eight, led by the 3-5 morning line favorite Flightline. This field is fitting of the most prestigious race in North America; every horse earned at least $1 million and is a Grade 1 stakes winner. In total they have 15 Grade 1 victories and $20.6 million in purse money.
In the last 10 years, the Classic was won by four 3-year-olds – Authentic, Arrogate, American Pharoah and Bayern – and all of them were trained by Bob Baffert. The previous two runnings of the Classic at Keeneland were won by two of those horses – Authentic in 2020 and American Pharoah in 2015.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Classic with the official morning line odds from Keeneland’s oddsmaker Nick Tammaro. The Classic is carded as race 11 of 12 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.
1. Taiba (8-1 – Gun Runner – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 5: 3-1-0 - $1,236,200) Bob Baffert won the Classic four times with 3-year-olds, and this year Taiba gives him a formidable contender. Since a debut maiden win in March, Taiba faced only Grade 1 company, picking up wins in the Santa Anita and Pennsylvania derbys. He will face older horses for the first time in the Classic. Back in the care of the Baffert, Taiba looks like a 3-year-old who is ready to run the best race of his career and should be closing down the stretch. Contender for exotics.
2. Life Is Good (6-1 – Into Mischief – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 10: 8-1-0 - $4,086,700) Life Is Good is the winner of his last three starts, with recent wins in the Woodward (G1) and the Whitney (G1). The Woodward was on a sloppy and sealed track at Aqueduct that was a slow and tiring surface. The Whitney was a dominant performance over Happy Saver and Hot Rod Charlie. Even though Life Is Good has been ranked as the second best American Thoroughbred behind Flightline for most of the year, there are plenty of bettors who are going to point out Life Is Good’s unimpressive performance in the Whitney along with the worst race of his career in the 10-furlong Dubai World Cup (G1). It is possible that Life Is Good gets ignored a bit by the wagering public. The 10-furlong question looms large.
3. Happy Saver (30-1 – Super Saver – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 12: 5-5-1 - $1,198,100) For the first time in his career, Happy Saver did not finish in the top three when he was fourth in the Lukas Classic (G2). That ended a steak of five second-place finishes, all of which happened in Grade 1 and 2 stakes. Now he faces this Classic field, so it is hard to expect him to bounce back and compete for the spot in the exacta. Toss.
4. Flightline (3-5 – Tapit – John Sadler / Flavien Prat – 5: 5-0-0 - $1,394,800) Flightline is the best American Thoroughbred heading into the Classic, and there are very few people who disagree. He has the fastest speed figures earned in his visually impressive victories by margins that overwhelmed his competition. The son of Tapit won his last three Grade 1 stakes by a total of 36 lengths. He will face the toughest field of his career, but that should be expected because the Classic is the most important race in America. Flightline makes this distinguished field look like they are racing for the $1.02 million second-place purse money. A deserving heavy favorite.
5. Hot Rod Charlie (15-1 – Oxbow – Doug O’Neill / Tyler Gaffalione – 18: 5-5-4 - $5,556,720) Heading into the Lukas Classic, Hot Rod Charlie had developed a reputation as a horse who had trouble finding the winner’s circle. There were a few unusual trips down the stretch in some of those losses, as was the case in the Lukas Classic with Rich Strike, but that time Hot Rod Charlie came out on top. He is likely to be a generous price on Saturday as the fourth or fifth choice. Did Hot Rod Charlie answer important questions with his recent victory? Exacta possibility.
6. Epicenter (5-1 – Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 10: 6-3-0 - $2,940,639) Epicenter established himself as the best 3-year-old after he won the Travers (G1) and the Jim Dandy (G2) convincingly. Those victories were added to his second-place finishes in the first two legs of the Triple Crown and his victories on the Derby trail. Three-year-olds have had plenty of success in the Classic as they fully mature at the year’s end, and Epicenter is expected to do so on Saturday. Is he the one to finish second behind Flightline? Completes the exacta.
7. Olympiad (10-1 – Speightstown– Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 12: 8-1-1 - $2,007,560) Olympiad is the winner of six of his last seven starts in 2022, with a recent victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup giving him his first Grade 1 win. The recent loss came when he was fourth in the Whitney behind three horses who are in this field. That was also the only time he did not finish in top three in his 12-race career. Olympiad has been a horse who likes to press the pace, and that will not be an easy thing to do in this field – as was the case in the Whitney. Toss.
8. Rich Strike (20-1 – Keen Ice – Eric Reed / Sonny Leon – 11: 2-1-3 - $2,200,489) Rich Strike’s fourth-place finish in the Travers and his second in the Lukas Classic were described as performances that show he belongs with the best horses in the country. But others will point out that he is still winless since his stunning upset of the Kentucky Derby (G1). Unlike the other 3-year-olds in this field, Rich Strike faced older horses already. In this field, Rich Strike once again will come with odds that his supporters should appreciate as he tries to finish in the exotics against the toughest field of his career. Toss.
Summary: In a race like the Breeders’ Cup Classic, there are tough decisions to be made and horses with great credentials have to be tossed from your tickets because you just cannot use them all. The presence of Flightline means this year's decisions are about who will finish in second, third and fourth.
Flightline will be a winner as the heaviest favorite of the weekend, with the 3-year-olds Epicenter and Taiba vying for second and third along with Hot Rod Charlie.