Breeders' Cup 2022: Fair odds, preview of $6 million Classic
The question is not whether Flightline will be favored in the Breeders' Cup Classic but just how big a favorite the undefeated, three-time Grade 1 winner will be Nov. 5 at Keeneland.
The current low-water mark belongs to Triple Crown champion American Pharoah, who was 7-10 when he won the 2015 edition, also at Keeneland. Flightline is currently between 1-2 and 8-13 in international bookmaking markets, but from a fair-odds perspective, I struggled making him less than 4-5 because of what that would mean for Epicenter, Life Is Good and Taiba.
In current markets Travers Stakes (G1) winner Epicenter and Woodward Stakes (G1) winner Life Is Good are the second choices with multiple Grade 1 winner Taiba a touch back as the fourth choice. That could mean opportunity for me, as I see Taiba as a more likely winner than Epicenter. Although, liking Flightline as much as I do on top, the real opportunity might not be worrying about likelihood of winning but, instead, focusing on beating Epicenter underneath.
I'm not sure there will be any value in the win pool against my fair odds, but there should be something underneath if willing to toss one of the three next logicals behind Flightline.
| BC Classic | Ed's line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Flightline | 4-5 | 5-for-5 Tapit colt looks to cement legacy as 1 of best ever. |
| Life Is Good | 8-1 | As good as any 8f-9f, but 10f? |
| Taiba | 9-1 | 1 of only 2 3yos w/ 2 2-turn G1 wins in 2022. |
| Epicenter | 10-1 | In a battle with Taiba for 3-year-old supremacy. |
| Country Grammer | 30-1 | Defeated Life Is Good going 1 1/4 miles. |
| Olympiad | 30-1 | in some years would be a clear favorite. |
| Hot Rod Charlie | 50-1 | Could toe grab a slice. |
| Rich Strike | 50-1 | Upset Derby winner will be long price again. |
| Happy Saver | 100-1 | 6 lengths behind Flightline, closest any horse has come. |
| Slow Down Andy | 200-1 | Could add to pace. |
| Cyberknife | 215-1 | Connections of last year's Classic winner Knicks Go. |