Breeders' Cup Classic 2020: Final picks and analysis

This year's marquee event truly is shaping up to be a classic. Improbable has been made the 5-2 morning line choice, but it would be no surprise to see him drift up a bit, leaving the favorite in the 3-1 to 7-2 range. 

With a deep, competitive field stacked up for the Breeders' Cup Classic, we turned to our experts for their analysis of the $6 million race.

Tiz the Law - Jarrod Horak, HRN Handicapper

Tiz the Law is having an outstanding sophomore campaign. He rattled off four straight stakes wins in emphatic fashion, and his Travers victory was one of the fastest and most impressive scores of the year in any division. 

He performs at the highest level when he has plenty of time between starts, and there is every reason to believe that he will run a strong race in the Classic. His only two career losses were at Churchill Downs, and I like that they brought him to Keeneland early to prepare for this race. He projects a cozy tactical trip and is probably going to score if he runs back to his Travers romp.

I will play him to win and box him in an exacta with likely favorite Improbable. I will include Tacitus underneath in trifectas and superfectas. He likes a mile and a quarter and consistently hits the board in graded dirt routes. He also projects a nice ground saving trip from off the pace.

Tom's d'Etat - Reinier Macatangay, HRN Handicapper

Despite his age, Tom's d'Etat enters the Breeders' Cup Classic in terrific form based on his races before the layoff. He began the year with a great win in the Oaklawn Mile over Improbable, before taking the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) by over four lengths in June with a lofty 129 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Next, Tom's d'Etat tried the Whitney Stakes (G1) against Improbable once more, but a stumble at the break initially put him in last early. Regardless, he did close well for third into a paceless race won by the hot Improbable. The 98-day layoff is a concern, but he always fires off the bench.

If not Tom's d'Etat, Authentic also offers value at 6-1 off his strong runner-up finish to Swiss Skydiver in the Preakness Stakes for trainer Bob Baffert. He also won the Kentucky Derby and Haskell Stakes (G1) prior to his Pimlico effort. With a 7-5-2-0 record, it is hard to ignore Authentic in either the top slot or the runner-up position.

Both Tom's d'Etat and Authentic will be used in the late Pick 4, or in a smaller Double with Magical as a confident single one race before the Classic.

Tiz the Law - Padraic Manocchio, HRN Content Producer

In a deep and competitive Breeders’ Cup Classic, in which as many as five horses could win, it is important to find one reliable runner to key in the top two spots. This year, that horse looks to be Tiz the Law. 

The brilliant Travers and Belmont winner has only been defeated twice, with both defeats coming at Churchill Downs.

Though he did not run poorly in the Kentucky Derby, it was surprising to see a rapidly improving 3-year-old take a step backwards with a perfect trip. This leads me to believe that he simply does not handle that surface very well.

If he shows the expected continued progression from his Travers win, this colt could post a Beyer Speed Figure over 110, which puts him on par or ahead of all his rivals.

He is proven at the distance, is fresh for this race, and has a versatile style to help him adapt to an interesting expected pace scenario, which should be quick.

I will also be using Tom's d'Etat in the top spots of all wagers. 

The Baffert trio are immensely talented and should be in the mix for minor awards, but from a value perspective Tiz the Law and Tom’s d’Etat look like the Classic horses to bet.

Maximum Security - Mark Midland, HRN CEO

With a deep and talented Classic field, it is easy to get swept up in the different story lines. The 3-year-olds Tiz the Law and Authentic were impressive this Fall, but it is important to remember they have yet to face the test of older horses. And while Improbable posted an impressive win over Maximum Security last time out in the Awesome Again, there was a torrid pace that compromised Max's chances and set it up for his stablemate Improbable. There's no need to overthink this race. 

Maximum Security has crossed the wire first in 11 of 13 races facing top company here and in the Saudi Cup. He's gone the 1 1/4 mile distance before, and it is unlikely that stablemate Authentic will go head to head with him on the lead.

That's when Maximum Security is most dangerous, on the lead or controlling the pace.  If that happens, Tiz the Law may press him, but he is not going to get by. 

[RELATED - Breeders' Cup Super Screener is Now Available]

Maximum Security - Mike Shutty, Super Screener author

Bob Baffert wields another strong hand this year and do not play against him. At least one of his charges will hit the Exacta if not more and that is the way you need to play this race. Tiz the Law will be resurgent here and is a serious contender.

Maximum Security will turn the tables on Improbable thanks to a much better pace set up and less risk of an unruly gate loading episode. This brilliant colt did all of the work in the Awesome Again (G1) providing his stablemate, Improbable, with the perfect set up. Note that BRIS 2nd Call fraction of that crazy fast 123 and, yet, after leaving it all on the track for the first mile, he had enough to hold on to 2nd.

The pace will be nothing close to that here, and in fact, the other stablemate, Authentic, will set that pace so Baffert charges will have a lot of control here. Maximum Security turns the tables on Improbable while providing some value. Along with his stablemate, he earns the perfect Super Screener score.