Breeders’ Cup 2025: How to play the Classic with Sovereignty out

Like many, I planned to use Sovereignty as my single in horizontal wagering and as my key in vertical wagers in the 2025 Breeders' Cup Classic. When news broke of his pending scratch, I was instantly conflicted about who I would pick on top.

Fierceness was the first horse who came to mind. He is coming off one of the best races of his career, has shown he loves the track and has shown more maturity and adaptability as a 4-year-old. When he brings his best, he is likely the best horse in this field. The problem is that he does not always put forth his top effort, and one only has to go as far back as his poor effort in the Grade 1 Whitney effort to see this on display.

Who else can win this race on their best day? My next answer to this question was Forever Young. He ran hoof-to-hoof with Fiercness and Sierra Leone last year and looked like he had taken a nice step forward as a 4-year-old with his win in the Saudi Cup (G1). That effort would be strong enough to get the job done on Saturday. Are we certain that he has not lost a step after that grueling international effort? His subsequent race in the Dubai World Cup (G1) was subpar, and he ran only once again this year, winning a prep in Japan against a hopelessly overmatched field. That race did not provide many answers. Like Fierceness, his best is great, but there is no guarantee we will see his best Saturday.

Based on raw talent, Mindframe was the next horse to consider. It would be no surprise to see him sit a nice stalking trip to get the job done. Like Fierceness and Forever Young, his greatness is accompanied by lingering questions. Is he fit enough after not having a real race since June? Is this his best distance? Todd Pletcher might be able to get him fit enough, but I do not think this is his best distance. He tends to wander and hang a bit when he makes the lead in longer races, and many of his rivals thrive as the distances increase.

The final horse I considered is Baeza. He continued to improve throughout his 3-year-old season, and he could pull off the upset if he peaks at the right time with another step forward. Like Fierceness, Forever Young and Mindframe, there is a bit of volatility to his projected outcome. Away from Sovereignty's shadow, this May foal might find another gear for his patient trainer, or he might simply not be fast enough to compete with this talented crop of older horses.

I had more questions than answers when I considered the possible winners of this race, but as I began to figure out my exotic wagers, things became much more clear. The reason I did not include Sierra Leone or Journalism above is because I am not confident that their best is as good as the best of the likes of Fierceness or Forever Young. Sierra Leone got a very favorable setup in last year's Classic against those runners. But I am very confident that Sierra Leone and Journalism will run a good race. These straightforward horses have far less questions.

We know they both adore the Classic distance, we know they can handle Del Mar and we know they will be charging late. Sierra Leone never has been worse than third in 13 lifetime starts. Journalism never has been worse than third in 10 lifetime starts and has never been worse than second routing. These two will show up, and they are the answer to this betting puzzle as they are going to run second and third behind whichever runner mentioned above fires their best shot.

With my betting strategy formed, I have put together my exotic wagers below based on a $20 budget. 

$1.50 trifecta. Fierceness/Forever Young - Sierra Leone/Journalism - Sierra Leone/Journalism

$1 trifecta. Mindframe/Baeza - Sierra Leone/Journalism - Sierra Leone/Journalism

50-cent trifecta box. Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Journalism

50-cent trifecta box. Forever Young, Sierra Leone, Journalism

50-cent trifecta. Fierceness/Forever Young - Sierra Leone/Mindframe - Sierra Leone/Mindframe

50-cent trifecta. Fierceness/Forever Young - Sierra Leone/Baeza - Sierra Leone/Baeza

The way these tickets are structured, one of either Forever Young or Fierceness has to run a poor race, which is very possible. If they both finish in the trifecta, it will not pay much anyway. I believe one of them will win, and that is my preferred trifecta. If they both run poorly, I have some coverage if Mindframe or Baeza come through at a better price.

I have smaller coverage with the trifecta boxes in case there is a pace meltdown and either Sierra Leone or Journalism wins. I also have a small coverage trifecta in case Journalism peaked a bit, as I trust Sierra Leone a bit more between the two runners. Picking the winning horse is not as important as cashing a winning ticket, and the consistent Sierra Leone and Journalism will make sure that is the case.