Breeders’ Cup 2025: 10 live long shots on HorseCenter

With the pre-entries for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup announced, we are ready to dig deep into the 14 races to find the best value plays over the two-day extravaganza at Del Mar. 

The fields for the world championships are deep, talented and contentious, and that could not be more true than in the big one. Headlined by the streaking Sovereignty, the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic will include no fewer than 10 Grade 1 winners, all in good form. That will not stop the HorseCenter hosts from taking a shot at some odds in what promises to be a classic edition of America’s richest race. 

With good horses coming from all over the globe, the two days at Del Mar promise to have some major surprises, as per usual. We like what they see in many of the races on both Friday and Saturday. Here are their top 10 live long shots at this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

Matt: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Later Than Planned (20-1) began his career at the Curragh in Ireland and finished second in a 21-horse field. He moved to the barn of Phil D’Amato, who is one of the best turf trainers on the West Coast and won at Del Mar in August going a mile. He was rank and got boxed in traffic in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3), which also was a mile. D’Amato cut him back to turf sprinting in the Speakeasy at Santa Anita, where he rallied to beat a field of 12 in a very fast race. D’Amato’s only Breeders’ Cup win was in the 2016 Turf Sprint.

Brian: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Meaning (15-1) will be the most lightly raced filly in the field, but I believe she has serious talent. Trained by Michael McCarthy, she was bet heavily in her debut at Los Alamitos and responded with a very sharp win where she ran fast all the way around. That 6 1/2-furlong victory is all she will have in the way of experience, but she has the pedigree to want longer. She also has a series of strong workouts before and after her debut for a trainer who knows how to have young horses ready for two-turns. A daughter of Gun Runner out of an Into Mischief mare, the stretch out to 1 1/16-miles here should be no problem. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, none of the fillies who will be bet below her on Friday scares me.

Matt: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Imaginationthelady (15-1) is undefeated in her only two starts in Kentucky for trainer Brendan Walsh. There is no trainer in the country with a hotter barn than Walsh, who has been winning graded stakes all over the country the past few months. Imaginationthelady made her first start at Kentucky Downs in September going a mile against a field of 12 and used a front-end effort to finish 1 1/2 lengths ahead of the others in a fast time of 1:34.74. A month later at Keeneland she won the Jessamine (G2) over another large field but this time with a stalking trip. 

Brian: Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Regaled (20-1) has been getting better and better all year long for trainer Whit Beckman. She never has beaten a field like she will see Nov. 1, but I saw a very good filly who is putting it all together in her recent win in the Delaware Handicap (G3). The Distaff has drawn a good-sized field and one I suspect will not let the clear favorite Seismic Beauty get an easy lead. With the favorite still a question mark at the distance, I am looking for someone to pick up the pieces here, and this daughter of Mohaymen comes running every time. All six of her races this year are good, and in several she did not get much of an early pace set-up. The odds will be right to use her in the top spot and in the exotics.

Matt: Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Clicquot (12-1) heads into the Distaff on a four-race winning streak. The Distaff became a wide-open affair when Thorpedo Anna retired and undefeated Baffert filly Cavalieri was not able to run. Clicquot is another runner from the barn of Brendan Walsh who is in the best form of her career. The 3-year-old will face older horses for the first time after becoming a Grade 1 winner in the Cotillion in September. Her winning streak began at Keeneland in April as a maiden, moved to an allowance at Churchill Downs and then to the Indiana Oaks (G3).

Brian: Breeders’ Cup Classic. Baeza (15-1) deserves to be a long shot in this loaded edition of the Classic, but on the other hand, he really has done little wrong since switching to the dirt to start the year for trainer John Shirreffs. A late foal, he was still trying to figure things out against Sovereignty and Journalism in their early meetings, and I believe the experience and maturity gained will do him well moving forward. Last time out the tactical runner got a perfect boost in confidence with an easy win in the Pennsylvania Derby. Back home in Southern California, I am looking for the beautifully bred colt to come of age. I’m still not sure that will be enough to beat everything awaiting him in this field, but at the odds I am willing to take a chance on Baeza.

Matt: Breeders’ Cup Classic. Journalism (10-1) is part of the impressive group of 3-year-olds in the Classic. He won the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the Preakness and the Haskell (G1). Unlike Sovereignty and Baeza, Journalism already faced older horses when he finished second in the Pacific Classic (G1) behind Fierceness. Admittedly, winning this year’s Classic will be a great achievement for whichever horse is successful, but as the fifth or sixth choice in the Classic, betting Journalism is a horse to use in the exacta and trifecta. The son of Curlin will get a significant rider change when Jose Ortiz gets on board for the first time.

Brian: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. White Abarrio (10-1) will be the most accomplished horse in a deep field going a two-turn mile at Del Mar. Admittedly, it is a wide open race, but the veteran son of Race Day brings loads of class and experience to the table. As far as his recent form, well, that’s why you will see some odds on the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner of 2023. I maintain that none of his three fourth-place finishes in Grade 1 races was bad, considering his trips in each. And don’t forget, he started the year with two wins including a sensational performance in a romping win in the $3 million Pegasus World Cup (G1). Judging from his recent workouts, I believe the ability is still very much there. He should like the two-turn mile trip and he has run great in Southern California before. He’s my top pick in this spot.

Matt: Breeders’ Cup Mile. Formidable Man (15-1) won his last two starts at Del Mar, which brings his career record at the Breeders’ Cup host track to 6-for-6. He won the Del Mar Mile (G2) at the end of August and the Eddie Read (G2) in July. Overall, the son of City of Light has wins in six of his last eight starts including the Kilroe Mile (G1) at Santa Anita and the Hollywood Derby (G1). He is a confirmed miler with four victories at the distance. Formidable Man does his best running with a stalking trip, but he has good tactical speed to get him into a contending position. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez has the mount.

Brian: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Village Voice (20-1) will be making only her second start of the year, but I really liked what I saw in her recent return. The 5-year-old granddaughter of Dubawi got absolutely no pace to run at in the Waya Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct and still closed like a shot to get up and win. A stronger pace while going the same 11-furlong trip at Del Mar should only help in this one. Her record in Europe before coming over was a little spotty, but she displayed some real talent and was improving into the end of her 2024 campaign. In her final race overseas, she was good enough to run fourth of 14 in the British Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes (G1) at Ascot behind the star Kalpana. Chad Brown likes what he sees in this import.