Breeders’ Cup 2022: Fair odds, preview of $4 million Turf

Having five Europe-based horses among the top six contenders of the Breeders’ Cup Turf is no surprise. But having one singular race so dominant as to make the top two finishers my choices to win this 1 1/2-mile tilt on Nov. 5 at Keeneland is quite unusual.

The British Champion Stakes (G1) was supposed to be Baaeed’s coronation. Instead, Bay Bridge led home Adayar, and the race was so electrifying that it earned a 127 class rating on Brisnet's scale. To put that in perspective, most superstar American Grade 1 winners on turf are in the 122-124 range.

As of now, I prefer the runner-up in the Champion. Adayar is more proven at the 1 1/2-mile distance, and the connections have seemingly won everything in site when shipping Godolphin’s international runners to America. Case in point: Modern Games.

The best U.S.-based hope is the filly War Like Goddess, who looked spectacular when beating males in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Aqueduct. She was closer to the pace that time, and that could be a huge weapon against these if in the clear for that kick for home.

Mishriff and Broome have the look of second- or even third-tier Euros, which sometimes is good enough to beat our best. But they’d need the Champion exacta not to show up.