Breeders’ Cup: Fair odds for $2 million Juvenile Fillies

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is is easily one of the more competitive groups of the World Championships slate. Perhaps a reason for that competitiveness is that it’s a 2-year-old dirt race void of Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

A price of 4-1 is a pretty high top choice on fair odds, but I think we’ll get it on Atomically, who joined trainer Todd Pletcher’s barn following Eclipse Thoroughbreds’ private purchase of the My Dear Girl Stakes runaway winner. The Girvin filly evokes memories of Awesome Feather, who took a similar path to Juvenile Fillies glory. 

I do favor the Alcibiades runners more than the other Grade 1 preps in part because of the track and distance experience, but also, they all ran their race. Depending on what happens pace-wise, one of the three should get a great trip. If there were a best prep-race prop, I’d choose the Alcibiades over the Frizette or Chandelier assuming similar odds.

As for the Frizette, I’m concerned that the numbers took steps back for flashy maiden winners. The Chandelier is intriguing, because of the moves forward, but I don’t see anything that pops like our top choice did against Florida foes.