Breeders’ Cup 2022: Fair odds, preview of Filly & Mare Sprint
The Dirt Mile is the Breeders’ Cup race most affected by post position. The second definitely would be the Filly & Mare Sprint, because the results from inside posts going seven furlongs at Keeneland since October 2014 are dreadful.
Not as dreadful as outside posts in the Dirt Mile, mind you, which is why the female sprint is second. But the data send a clear message that inside is not an ideal draw in this race. Posts 1, 2 and 3 are downgrades, 4, 5 and 6 are fine, and 7 and beyond are potential upgrades.
So these odds were made assuming a favorable draw for everyone. They all won’t get that, but they all will have to deal with Goodnight Olive, who is riding a five-race win streak and is undefeated at this seven-furlong distance. On top of all that, she seems to fit this race perfectly. There is plenty of front-end speed, and other contenders are deeper closers. She can get the jump on this bunch.
Frank's Rockette has a similar style and is my second choice on the non-cutback cutback, going from a two-turn, seven-furlong race to one turn here.
Both Echo Zulu and Letruska are known names who will be over bet, making this race a potential big play with several longer-priced throw-outs as well. Hot Peppers can beat me on the front end, and Chain of Love seems overmatched.
Obligatory and Ce Ce have races that can match Goodnight Olive, but I am concerned about pace, especially considering how Keeneland played the latter half of its fall meeting.
| BC F&M Sprint | Ed’s line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Goodnight Olive | 7-2 | 3-for-3 at 7f + a win at KEE + 5-race streak = filly to beat. |
| Frank's Rockette | 6-1 | Ability to stalk/press pace and close strongly is a weapon here. |
| Obligatory | 8-1 | Speediest horses are long shots who could set up this one’s kick. |
| Ce Ce | 10-1 | Takes a lot of money. Believers finally get a price. |
| Lady Rocket | 10-1 | Of the potential pace-setters, this is the one I like best. |
| Echo Zulu | 15-1 | An almost certain underlay, she needs to get faster for these. |
| Letruska | 15-1 | Intriguing on cutback, but name recognition attracts dough. |
| Chi Town Lady | 20-1 | Another deep closer lacks big win, but last at this dist. intrigues. |
| Edgeway | 20-1 | West Coast speed is not what it once was. |
| Slammed | 20-1 | N.M.-bred is fast early, but so are several others. |
| Hot Peppers | 30-1 | Another speed type. Lots of company there, and isn't fastest. |
| Wicked Halo | 40-1 | Win at track and distance last out, but light on figures. |
| Chain of Love | 55-1 | Will be over bet because of Japan’s success last year. |