Breeders’ Cup 2022: Fair odds, preview of $1 million Dirt Mile
Of all the races at this year’s Breeders’ Cup next week at Keeneland, next Saturday’s Dirt Mile is by far the one in which prognostications are most reliant on the post draw.
So taking the fair odds below with the knowledge that horses who draw inside are an upgrade, and those drawn outside are a downgrade.
Few things in racing are really just that simple, but the data are clear on dirt miles at Keeneland. Posts 6-12 in races with at least 10 starters are just 1-for-97.
Cody’s Wish consistently is the most impressive horse among this group. Not only do his numbers stack up, but he also defeated the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in the Jackie’s Warrior. The latter is cutting back to six furlongs for his Breeders’ Cup tilt, and Cody’s Wish is stretching back out to two turns where he is 0-for-2.
If Cody’s Wish draws well, and the other logicals don’t, then it’s single-city time. If he doesn’t draw well, then he’s vulnerable, and this race could add some spice to the early, multi-race wagers on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.
| BC Mile | Ed’s line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cody’s Wish | 7-2 | 0-for-2 at 2 turns but clearly fastest. Outside post would be killer. |
| Pipeline | 6-1 | Pressed Jackie’s Warrior last out. Moves up with inside draw. |
| Señor Buscador | 6-1 | Unlike our other top choices, does have a 2-turn win. |
| Gunite | 8-1 | BC horses on 2 weeks’ rest since 2014 have positive ROI. |
| Laurel River | 10-1 | 2-for-2 at 2 turns, beat next-out winner whom we like last out. |
| Law Professor | 12-1 | 2-for-4 at distance and versatile. |
| Cyberknife | 15-1 | Will be underlaid against this group. |
| Simplification | 20-1 | Triple Crown trail buzz horse can be speed threat with right draw. |
| Three Technique | 20-1 | Convinced this one has a big one in him at a big price still. |
| Informative | 40-1 | Tough sell to win, but a good draw could help sneak in exotics. |
| Surly Furious | 50-1 | Wins on synthetic, but that’s a class issue based on figs. |
| Slow Down Andy | 100-1 | Too slow. |