Breeders’ Cup 2022: Fair odds, preview of $2 million Juvenile
Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is no stranger to hype surrounding his 2-year-olds, but the buzz surrounding Cave Rock is deafening, even for a trainer who has won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile five times.
Incredibly, the only odds-on winner of America’s richest race for juveniles occurred in the inaugural event in 1984, when Chief’s Crown cemented his Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male with a win at 7-10. No winner since has paid less than even money, but Cave Rock could break Chief’s Crown record. He already is down to 1-2 in international futures for the Nov. 4 race at Keeneland.
For this exercise I have him at even money, but like Flightline, who is 4-5 for the Classic, I expect to lower those fair odds once the draw actually takes place on Oct. 31 in Lexington, Ky. A far outside draw going 1 1/16 miles might stymie my enthusiasm to go as low as 1-2 or 3-5.
Cave Rock’s biggest competition might be in the form of his stablemate National Treasure. Although “the other Baffert” is a common lament among railbirds, the fact is only one of his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners was a longer price than an uncoupled stablemate. That was New Year’s Day in 2013 against Tap It Rich.
Any 2-year-old not trained by Baffert is simply up against it here to my eye and will have to improve greatly to contend with his formidable pair.
| BC Juvenile | Ed’s line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cave Rock | 1-1 | 3 consecutive 100+ Brisnet Speed Ratings to start career. |
| National Treasure | 4-1 | Would be big favorite most years if not for stablemate. |
| Forte | 10-1 | Track & distance G1 win but don’t love run style. |
| Awesome Strong | 12-1 | The Awesome Feather of this year’s Juvenile? |
| Blazing Sevens | 20-1 | Nice wins but not so much Brisnet Speed Ratings. |
| Verifying | 30-1 | Blame the slop for step back? Debut was nice. |
| Congruent | 60-1 | Nice pedigree for this and came home quickly last out. |
| Curly Jack | 60-1 | Maybe can run with Cave Rock early. |
| Lost Ark | 100-1 | Trouble in last. Interesting Pletcher hasn’t given up. |
| Red Route One | 100-1 | Improved last out in defeat but a win a tall order. |