Breeders’ Cup 2022: Fair odds, preview of $2 million Distaff
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Photo:
Chelsea Durand / NYRA
Unquestionably the best wagering opportunity when it comes to playing the board against my opinion is shaping up to be the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. It features the leading 3-year-old filly Nest, and she easily will be among the top two choices along with her stablemate Malathaat.
See more of Ed’s fair odds for Breeders’ Cup 2022:
In general, 3-year-olds don’t fare well in the Distaff. They’re such bad bets, in fact, that if you had bet every non-3-year-old in every Distaff you’d have shown a flat-bet profit. That number held even before Marche Lorraine won last year’s Distaff at 49-1.
So what about this year? I think all the 3-year-olds are behind their elders, including the leader of the division, Nest, although she already defeated older females in the Beldame Stakes (G2).
Malathaat is the most dangerous to me. I trust Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher to have this one primed based on the current form cycle. In other words, she’s better now than this summer, when she lost to Clairière, who certainly is dangerous here at her best, but that last race was not how you want to come into a tough Grade 1.
Search Results and Blue Stripe are most likely to be longer prices than my fair odds for them. I’m excited to bet them in this race.
| BC Distaff | Ed’s line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Malathaat | 5-2 | 2021 champion 3-year-old filly looks to seal older female honors. |
| Search Results | 7-2 | Looks to turn tables on Malathaat, Clairière in biggest race of ’22. |
| Clairière | 6-1 | Head-to-head edge w/ Malathaat this year, but last was dreadful. |
| Blue Stripe | 8-1 | Stacks favorably on paper, but layoff is a concern. |
| Society | 10-1 | Fastest 3yo filly when best; can Distaff prove not an aberration? |
| Nest | 10-1 | Leading 3yo filly looking to cement Eclipse; figures are a concern. |
| Secret Oath | 17-1 | Oaks winner has not run well enough lately to contend w/ elders |
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