Breeders' Cup 2021: Ranking the most vulnerable favorites

Favorites have only won 31.1 percent of all Breeders' Cup races historically. It is important to keep this statistic in the back of your mind before getting caught up in the impressive resumes of some of this year's top choices. Most favorites will be facing the best competition they have ever seen, are likely to be placed into more challenging pace scenarios, and have a greater chance of encountering trouble, especially on the turf.

A handful of favorites will prove too tough to overcome, but it is likely that over half will be defeated. Below we rank the eight most vulnerable favorites in the 2021 Breeders' Cup.

1. War Like Goddess (Filly & Mare Turf): Bill Mott's filly has done little wrong in her short career thus far, but she has never faced a field anywhere remotely close to this quality. Aidian O'Brien's Love and Yoshirto Yashagi's Loves Only You have faced the best turf horses in the world, including males, and have more than held their own.

Love has five Group 1 wins compared to War Like Goddess' one Grade 1 win. Defending champion Audarya and French Group 1 winner Rougir add to the depth of this tough field. I will be playing only international runners in this field.

2. Pizza Bianca (Juvenile Fillies Turf): Christophe Clement's filly is the favorite in the most wide-open race of the Breeders' Cup at 5-1 on the morning line. She has a chance to win, but there are a handful of other horses with every bit as good of a shot of capturing this race.

I like the European shipper Miss En Scene quite a bit in here and feel she is squarely the horse to beat. Despite a troubled trip she finished ahead of Wild Beauty last out. Wild Beauty easily defeated Pizza Bianca at Woodbine.

3. Golden Pal (Turf Sprint): Like Pizza Bianca, this colt has the talent to win, but faces plenty of worthy foes who look equally as good. He must show he has taken a step forward from his 2-year-old campaign, while facing tough seasoned older sprinters. At this stage it seems like he is living on his reputation a bit and he will have to run the best race of his life to win.

4. Jack Christopher (Juvenile): He may very well prove to be the most talented horse in this race, but Jackie's Warrior was arguably the best horse last year and he did not win, because he was not as effective at two turns. I believe this colt is supremely talented, but does not have the breeding or experience to inspire confidence.

He is likely to face intense pace pressure from Corniche among others and will have to gun it from the rail. I will be using him on multi-race wagers, but he is far from a cinch.

5. Space Blues (Mile): Charlie Appleby's shipper is arguably the best turf sprinter in the world, but that does not make him the winner of the Mile. There is zero doubt that he is the best horse in this race, but he has the prove he can handle one mile against top competition. He also appears to be better with some give in the ground and the turf will be very firm on Saturday.

A full, deep field complicates matters even more. It would be no surprise to see him win, but the race that produced a 72-1 upset winner last year could be chaotic again this year.

6. Dubawi Legend (Juvenile Turf): This promising colt is actually my top pick in this race, but circumstances make him winning less likely than many other favorites. He is drawn in post 14 in a full field on the turf and will require luck to sit a good trip.

I feel he is the best horse in this race, but he may have to be much the best to win. He has to be used, but it is tough to single in this race.

7. Averly Jane (Juvenile Turf Sprint): Like Dubawi Legend, this filly is my top pick, but is tough to single due to the wide-open nature of this race. She will likely face a ton of pace pressure and may have to prove she can rate to win. She could be this good, but the field is more likely to win than the favorite in this spot.

8. Letruska (Distaff): This amazing mare deserves the utmost respect as she goes for her sixth victory in a row. She has never been better, but it is important to note that she has never won a race in which she sat off the lead.

She may be quick enough to get the lead in here, but will surely face pressure from Shedaresthedevil, Horologist and Private Mission. I expect her to run her heart out, but may be caught late by a closer such as Royal Flag.