Breeders' Cup 2020: Analyzing recent Pick 4, 5 and 6 payouts

Bettors long have chased after the Breeders' Cup Pick 4 and Pick 6 in hopes of a life-changing score. Some years, that is what they get, but even the more "chalky" editions present an opportunity for value.

The Breeders' Cup changed its wagering format over the last couple of years, and it has been fascinating to watch betting the strategies transform.

In 2018, the Pick 5 was added, and the Pick 6 was switched to a $1 jackpot format. With the format remaining the same in 2020, I took an in-depth look at the results of the last two years to determine the potential best value.

As you will see below, the lower takeout Pick 5 was a true friend to horseplayers on Breeders' Cup Friday and Saturday each of those year.

Friday

2018 Pick 6 winners: Improbable ($3.80), Bulletin ($10.60), Newspaperofrecord ($3.20), Jaywalk ($13), Line of Duty ($9.00), Game Winner ($4)

2018 was one of the most chalky Friday Pick 6 sequences of all-time. Three of the top six winners returned $4 or less. Newspaperofrecord was a free square for most, while Improbable and Game Winner were singled on many tickets as well. The late Pick 4 (50-cent minimum) returned a light $365 for $2.

By simply adding Bulletin at 4-1, the Pick 5 (50-cent minimum) jumped to $2,254. This shows the tremendous value of the Pick 5 as you could have gone six deep in that first leg and it still would have been a better return on your investment than the Pick 4.

Furthering the case for the Pick 5 was the fact that it paid more than the Pick 6 ($1 minimum), which netted a return of only $1,840 for $2. 

Following the chalk parade in 2018, 2019 was due to be chaotic — and it certainly was.

2019 Pick 6 winners: Tap Back ($30.00), Four Wheel Drive ($5.00), Sharing ($29.60), British Idiom ($7.40), Structor ($12.60), Storm the Court ($93.80)

Tap Back got the Pick 6 started at $30, and Storm the Court ended it at $93.80. Those who somehow managed to be alive in the Pick 6 heading into the last race likely zeroed in on Dennis' Moment as a single or Eight Rings as an alternative. A year after the Friday Pick 6 paid only $1,840, it went unsolved despite the $1 minimum. The opportunity for a seven-figure payday was on the table, which is what horseplayers dream of.

Those who did not include Tap Back in their Pick 6 could have wheeled back to play a Pick 5 that paid an incredible $183,990 for $1. It paid more than 10 times what the Pick 4 did despite a 3-2 shot starting the sequence.

The lesson is to focus on the Pick 5 and stay alive heading into the Pick 4 even if you feel you need to spread to do so.

Saturday

The 2018 Pick 6 was highlighted by star power. Picking Sistercharlie, Roy H, Monomoy Girl and Enable to win and getting rewarded $3,706 sounds like a good deal. Expert Eye, the largest price in this extremely formful sequence, paid $13.80 in a race most people spread. The Pick 5 paid 3.5 times more than the Pick 4, which was not as big of a spread as in 2019, but still generous, considering Roy H started the Pick 5 at 5-2.

The Pick 6 paying about $1,500 more than the Pick 5 does not seem like enough of a value, considering you would have had to double the minimum cost of your ticket and more if you did not single Sistercharlie at 3-1.

2019 Pick 6 winners: Iridessa ($28.40), Mitole ($5.60), Uni ($9.20), Blue Prize ($19.80), Bricks and Mortar ($4), Vino Rosso ($11.20)

The 2019 Pick 6 was a perfect sequence for horse players. The popular single Bricks and Mortar came through, but only one other favorite won in the sequence. The lack of favorites kept payoffs high, but on the flip side, no horse won at greater than 13-1, which made it hittable.

The Pick 4 paid well, but the Pick 5 paid four times more than the Pick 4 despite only adding Mitole at 3-2. By doubling the cost of the ticket ($1 minimum for the Pick 6) and adding Iridessa at 13-1, one could have made an additional $48,535.