Fair odds: There is value to pair with Bowling Green favorite

Since Silver Knott is 2-for-2 going beyond 1 1/4 miles, there is no reason to think he will not run a similarly representative race Sunday at 5:45 p.m. EDT in the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes going 1 3/8 miles at Saratoga.

The question for handicappers is how often does that race defeat the other six horses lined up for this 1 3/8-mile test on the inner-turf course? Put another way, Silver Knott has been consistent enough that, while a clunker seems unlikely, it is difficult to expect a breakthrough performance.

I have him at 6-5 to win the Bowling Green, the overwhelming choice against the rest but unlikely to be value considering the 4-5 morning line. However, there is hope, because Sugoi is 10-1 on the morning line but 6-1 in my fair odds. More important, the 4-1 third choice Soldier Rising is 14-1 on my line, so there should be opportunity keying on Segoi.

The negative for me on Soldier Rising is we have two full seasons to look at, and in each of those he started off slowly before rounding into his top form. At his best he is a contender here, but we’ve never seen his best off a layoff before, and 1 3/8 miles against this group is unlikely to bring it out either.

As for Sugoi, it is a gamble, because his best race on Ragozin was his last, and it is the only race capable of winning this. Running back to those types of races is no guarantee, but we are getting the right price to gamble on it happening.

I will make a win bet at his fair odds or better and key him in exactas and tris with Ohana Honor and Silver Knott, while pressing those bets with Silver Knott.