Bowling Green fair odds: Try again with a Saratoga long shot

Loyal readers of this space may remember my bullishness on Tucson in the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes, even after it moved a day and shortened in distance from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/8 miles.

Well, if I stuck with him at 10-1 in those less-than-ideal circumstances, and you can add less-than-firm ground to the list of negatives, then I'm not going anywhere at 15-1 morning line for the Bowling Green (G2) getting out to 1 3/8 miles at Saratoga, with the going to be determined.

Tucson looked fantastic in both of his synthetic starts, earning fast numbers as he stretched out. His turf debut was visually impressive though not as fast after pressing an extremely slow pace, according to Brisnet's ratings. The Manhattan was much quicker, and he was just out of gas. Obviously Irad Ortiz Jr. is one of the best, but Luis Saez is no slouch either, and I think this is an interesting jockey change given Tucson's run style and the stretch back out to 11 furlongs.

Of course the race goes through Far Bridge, a worthy favorite who stayed on in the Manhattan much better than Tucson did with similar trips. He probably wants more distance too, but he is giving weight, and 6-5 on the morning line feels like an underlay against a group that has plenty of similar races to Far Bridge's best.