Bolt d'Oro or Justify? Choosing a Santa Anita Derby winner

Saturday's Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby promises to be quite the thriller as it pits Bolt d’Oro, the established Kentucky Derby contender, against the massive upstart colt Justify, who has the horse racing world buzzing after his visually and numerically impressive win in the mud just three weeks ago

It should be these two that will distance the field as they engage in their own personal match race down the stretch. But which one gets the edge? Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system believes it's Bolt d'Oro.

It's likely that Justify will set the pace, and it will be a modest one in the early going. Bolt d’Oro’s stablemate, Orbit Rain, could be sent early to challenge and ensure that there is additional pressure applied to the Bob Baffert runner. Additionally, you can expect Instilled Regard and Core Beliefs to be in close attendance.

The pace will be below par, but there will be moderate pressure. No one is going to wear down Justify early. They just don’t want him to get away.

Bolt d’Oro’s 2018 debut was a strong one considering that he was not fully cranked for the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. He's being trained to peak on the first Saturday in May while following a pattern similar to one that led to his lifetime top as a juvenile in the Grade 1 FrontRunner.

The son of Medaglia d'Oro has been training up to this one in superior fashion and is sitting on a huge race. Connections have always said as they stretch out to longer distances, this colt will only get better. He already has plenty of points to make the Kentucky Derby field. Connections just need to see a good progression off that last race to set him up for that peak effort in four weeks.  

For Justify, on the other hand, he has to finish first or second to earn sufficient Derby points. Otherwise, he's likely to find himself on the sidelines when it comes to the first Saturday in May.

This late-developing, gigantic Scat Daddy colt debuted just seven weeks ago for the Baffert barn, so he is on the “hurry up” plan. However, he is just so professional and bright-minded for a lightly raced 3-year-old and has not shown any signs of regressing. In addition, other than Bolt d’Oro, who's his competition here?  Justify is a reliable exacta player, and added ground is welcomed.

For more analysis of this weekend's Derby preps, plus a wagering guide for each, check out HRN’s Super Screener today.