Blue Grass fair odds: Lightly raced colt is a play in Derby prep

Hopefully the Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland will live up to the hype of the entry box, as on paper, this looks to be the best Kentucky Derby prep ahead of the sesquicentennial running of the world's most famous horse race.

And why not? It's a $1 million Grade 1 just 73 miles east of the famed twin spires and four weeks out from the run for the roses.

On paper, this race has it all. Accomplished 2-year-olds who won their 3-year-old debuts in the Remsen Stakes 1-2 finishers of Dornoch and Sierra Leone, respectively. And up-and-coming types such as Just a Touch, who won his career debut in January before finishing second to Deterministic in the Gotham (G3).

It is that lightly raced colt for trainer Brad Cox who most catches our eye, as he figures to be third choice in the field of 11 behind the Remsen pair. Sierra Leone certainly impressed visually when winning the Risen Star (G2), though "the number" came back slow, and Dornoch won a scratch-depleted Fountain of Youth (G2) but earned a better figure than his rival in doing so.

Those known commodities are sure to attract money here, which makes a bet on Just a Touch alluring in his first try around two turns and presumably on a track rated as fast. Neither of these variables should pose a threat to the Justify colt, as progeny of the Triple Crown winner and horse of the year have better win percentages and Horse Racing Nation Impact scores in routes versus sprints and fast tracks versus wet.

I have little doubt that I will get my fair odds of 3-1 here and will be prepared to make a win bet on the Blue Grass. The other two I'm most interested in for different reasons are Dornoch and Epic Ride.

Dornoch I see as the second-most likely winner and potentially playable in multi-race wagers with my top pick because Sierra Leone figures to be overbet. Epic Ride is less a win candidate for me, though he is likely to offer overlaid odds in that pool, and more a key underneath my top two. The John Battaglia Memorial runner-up is trying dirt for the first time, and HRN sire stats indicate better numbers for Blame progeny on dirt than synthetic. I could see him being the one pace presence who sticks around to spice things up.