Blue Grass: Who to play with Essential Quality

As of this writing, the Grade 2, $800,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland offers a moderate field at best to face undefeated champion Essential Quality. Nevertheless, he does stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time and meets new blood.

The most striking part about the probables list is the lack of speed present. Unless the field changes, Essential Quality might find himself pressing the pace or even leading, depending on whether Tarantino enters and breaks well this time.

Here is an analysis of each horse likely to enter.

1. Essential Quality, 1-2 (Tapit – Brad Cox/TBA – 4: 4-0-0 - $1,785,144): The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion made a successful return in the twice-delayed Southwest Stakes (G3) at the end of February. He won by 4 1/4 lengths over Spielberg in second, with another 4 1/4 lengths to Jackie’s Warrior in third. Spielberg did not run well in the Florida Derby (G1) last weekend, finishing a dismal eighth. Regardless, this is not a great situation to play against Essential Quality. He not only won a Breeders’ Cup race over this course as a closer, but also took the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) on the same course after pressing the pace. The time to play against this versatile runner is in the Kentucky Derby – unless he blows the Blue Grass field away with a stratospheric speed figure, of course. If nothing else, handicappers will get a better read on him heading into the Run for the Roses. The pick.

2. Highly Motivated, 9-2 (Into Mischief – Chad Brown/TBA – 4: 2-1-1 - $160,050): Last year, Highly Motivated broke his maiden at 6 1/2 furlongs against a familiar name in Known Agenda, the eventual Florida Derby winner last weekend. Then, he won the Nyquist Stakes at seven furlongs on the Breeder’s Cup undercard. The big question is why Brown chose not to attempt the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If a trainer believes his horse looks like a router physically, he is not going to wait to stretch him out. Even the return spot in March is questionable in terms of the Kentucky Derby, as Brown chose the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G3) for him. Highly Motivated made a mild bid in the stretch to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths but ultimately did not scare Weyburn or Crowded Trade in second. His missing late punch in the Gotham is not a great sign for handling the distance of this 1 1/8-mile race. Highly Motivated’s overall value is not great either as a Brown-trained runner with some hype behind him. Toss.

3. Keepmeinmind, 15-1 (Laoban – Robertino Diodoro/TBA – 5: 1-2-1 - $400,987) His consistency as a 2-year-old is notable. Not only did Keepmeinmind break his maiden in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), but he also ran second in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He lost by only two lengths to Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup. Also, the second-place Hot Rod Charlie did capture his second start off the bench this season in the Louisiana Derby (G2). With that said, Keepmeinmind ran a dismal sixth in his return effort in the Rebel Stakes (G2), losing by eight lengths to the sharp Baffert runner Concert Tour. Even if Keepmeinmind brought good current form, the current pace setup does not favor his closing style. As another strike to Keepmeinmind, the Kentucky Jockey Club has been a weaker race in retrospect, with the slow Smiley Sobotka managing to hold second. This year, Smiley Sobotka ran ninth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and 10th in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Perhaps Keepmeinmind won the race only by default over a bad field. If he moves forward off the Rebel flop and manages a clean trip, though, completing the trifecta or super is possible. He figures to pass tired ones late, but Essential Quality is supposed to beat him. Use underneath.

4. Rombauer, 20-1 (Twirling Candy – Michael McCarthy/TBA – 5: 2-1-0 - $210,500): This one made a successful closing bid to capture the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields by a neck over synthetic. But winners of the El Camino Real Derby generally do not fare well on the trail. Before the El Camino Real win, Rombauer was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, losing to Essential Quality by 6 1/4 lengths. He also ran second in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), losing by only 3/4 of a length to Get Her Number. Get Her Number was a fading seventh in the Rebel Stakes, losing by 8 1/2 lengths to the standout winner Concert Tour. On paper, there is not a strong argument to use Rombauer on top. Maybe he could rally by a few horses and complete the trifecta or super, but a win would come as a surprise. Use underneath.

5. Hidden Stash, 6-1 (Constitution – Victoria Oliver/TBA – 6: 2-1-2 - $191,062): Hidden Stash put in decent efforts at Tampa Bay to finish third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). In the latter effort, he went to battle against Helium in the stretch and lost by only 3/4 of a length. With that said, it is questionable whether Helium would hit the top three in this race. The final time of 1:43.55 was slow in comparison to the 1:41.98 by Last Judgment in the Challenger Stakes (G3) earlier in the card. Although this is not the strongest Blue Grass Stakes field, it is hard to trust the horses coming out of the Tampa Bay races. Watch the tote board. If he starts at single digits, those odds are too low. But if his odds float to 10-1 or higher, then sure, the “toss” label can be reconsidered. Toss.

6. Sittin On Go, 50-1 (Brody’s Cause – Dale Romans/TBA – 6: 2-0-0 - $169,520): Given his sixth-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) and seventh-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, it is difficult to see why Romans wants to continue on the trail. After winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3) last year, he was ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and sixth in the maligned Kentucky Jockey Club. Perhaps he failed to develop after the Iroquois win or something went wrong physically. Sittin On Go needs to show more in order to trust him as a bettor. Toss.

7. Hush of a Storm, 20-1 (Creative Cause – William Morey/TBA – 4: 3-0-0 - $65,985): This late runner is a success at Turfway Park after three straight wins, including the recent John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. But note his eighth-place finish in a maiden claimer at Churchill Downs over dirt. In fairness, the claiming price was $150,000 and first-time starters typically need the debut as a learning experience. Plus, his career debut came over seven furlongs, and sometimes true routers cannot adjust to a sprint tempo. Even though he won the John Battaglia Memorial, the public is more likely to ignore him than not. Along with Keepmeinmind and Rombauer, he is one to consider using underneath for value. Use underneath.

8. Tarantino, 12-1 (Pioneerof the Nile – Rodolphe Brisset/TBA – 6: 2-2-0 - $132,150): Tarantino did not break well in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). From that point, Tarantino ran in last the entire way and walked off under Florent Geroux. Brisset believes he deserves another shot in the Blue Grass Stakes – either that or the owners are pressuring him to make the Kentucky Derby. On the plus side, the race lacks pace and he is probable to show off his speed if he can start better. But Essential Quality can use speed as well and he is probable to keep him company. For what it is worth, Tarantino shares the same second dam as King Guillermo (Slow Down). Overall, the pedigree is fine for 1 1/8 miles and great for slop as well. He can hold on for a piece, but Essential Quality is going to beat him. Use underneath.

Conclusion

Although this post is written before the final draw and surprises may pop up, Essential Quality looks like a clear single at this point. If his class does not carry him to victory, then his tactical speed in a race void of pace will help him win.

Highly Motivated brings notable talent, but his stamina is suspect and he starts at nine furlongs for the first time after running only as far as one mile in four starts. If playing an exacta wheel key with Essential Quality on top, try to beat Highly Motivated in second with Keepmeinmind, Rombauer, Hush of a Storm or Tarantino.