Blue Grass fair odds: Hand out mulligans to catch a price

Four of the seven horses entered in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on Tuesday at Keeneland are coming off losses at odds of 5-2 or less. Deciding what to do with those horses, all of whom should be among the top choices in this final 100-points-to-the-winner Kentucky Derby prep, is the key to this race.

First, the unequivocal stone-cold toss: East Avenue is impossible for me to use in this spot. He is 3-1 on the morning line, 5-1 on Horse Racing Nation's projected odds line and 8-1 on my fair-odds line. In short, East Avenue is a tremendous underlay and cannot be used in any wager, in my opinion.

Second, the light toss: River Thames is 5-2 on the morning line and projected to go off less than 2-1 by Horse Racing Nation. Given I have him as the 7-2 second choice, he is a likely underlay as well and certainly opposable as the chalk in this spot.

That leaves Burnham Square and Chancer McPatrick as the horses I'm willing to forgive, with last-out Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Owen Almighty and long shots Render Judgement and Admiral Dennis left to discuss.

I give the edge to Burnham Square, who looked too good winning the Holy Bull (G3) to give up on him after an OK Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Sure, he finished behind River Thames there, but he did defeat eventual Florida Derby (G1) winner Tappan Street in the Holy Bull. Incidentally, Brad Cox trains both River Thames and Tappan Street, so he has used this path of taking a horse on a path from maiden to stakes runner-up to Grade 1 winner already this year.

Ian Wilkes trains Burnham Square, and although he has not won the Kentucky Derby, Wilkes was involved in the preparation of Derby winners Unbridled and Street Sense when working for Hall of Fame trainer Carl Nafzger. Burnham Square has the feel of that kind of progression.

Chancer McPatrick was second to Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby, but Owen Almighty had the pace all his way that day in Oldsmar, Fla. That is unlikely Tuesday in Lexington with the presences of River Thames and East Avenue. Both long shots have some zip as well. 

That is to say, if ever a race is going to set up for Chancer McPatrick, then this is it. If both River Thames and East Avenue are underlays then I have no issue going two deep in multi-race plays using Burnham Square and Chancer McPatrick.