Blue Grass fair odds: Does Further Ado have the edge?

Horse racing handicapper and author Steve Davidowitz famously penned, "speed is class," and it's something I'm keeping in mind when looking at the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland.

The top three contenders are: Further Ado, a graded-stakes winner at 2 who broke his maiden at Keeneland by 20 lengths and debuted at 3 with a runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby; Class President, who won the Rebel Stakes (G2) last out in his first start around two turns and defeated Silent Tactic by a nose; and Reagan's Honor, whose two starts at 1 1/16 miles have come in a maiden and an allowance race but resulted in two gate-to-wire victories.

On paper, it looks like three different class levels. But the performance data – Brisnet Speed Ratings, Ragozin performance figures, etc. – indicate a much more competitive trio. Normally in the instance of similar talent levels, I'd be looking to take the biggest price. But I am most interested in the likely favorite here if the win odds allow it.

Further Ado's runner-up finish behind The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) was flattered when that one narrowly missed to Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner Commandment in the Florida Derby (G1). And although performances this year have these three horses on somewhat even terms, Further Ado has by far the best race to get back to. In other words, Further Ado needs only to move forward to what he already accomplished figure-wise, but the other two are very likely to need career-best performances to win the Blue Grass.

Regan's Honor is exciting because he is untested. He could be any kind, as they say around the sales. My trepidation at taking too short a price on him is that the Brisnet pace ratings for both of his gate-to-wire wins were lower than the pars for this race type. It's conceivable he is just good enough, but he will be tested early against this group, so I'd want a price above his morning line to wager my money.

Just as Further Ado was flattered by The Puma, Class President got a milder resume booster when Silent Tactic finished second to likely Kentucky Derby favorite Renegade in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Silent Tactic has been consistent all season, and his Arkansas Derby run, though no match for Renegade, gives us confidence in the Rebel Stakes numbers. Unfortunately for Class President, without a step forward that effort is likely too slow to take his morning line price to win this.

With such a competitive card Saturday at Keeneland, my plan will be to find longer-priced horses preceding the Blue Grass and narrow in on Further Ado. Vertically, the Louisiana-bred Creole Chrome interested me a little bit to get a piece of the action. He never has run a bad race and, like Reagan's Honor, is stretching out off a gate-to-wire, two-turn win at Fair Grounds. A win would surprise, but he can get a slice of this.