Blue Grass Stakes 2019: Odds and analysis

With the opening weekend of Keeneland’s spring meet arrives several important stakes races, including the Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday. The nine-furlong dirt race is for 3-year-olds and worth 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points (in other words, an automatic berth) to the lucky winner. 

Despite its Grade 2 status, this remains a quality race, and one that will challenge handicappers with a large field this year.

Most eyes will fall on Vekoma, who finished third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) off a layoff. The George Weaver-trained colt noticeably runs with an unorthodox leg action, but it does not seem to affect his ability to compete at this level. 

The race is carded as Race 10 with post time set for 6:23 p.m. Here's a look at the field with Mike Battaglia's morning line odds. 

1. Somelikeithotbrown, 10-1 (Big Brown – Michael Maker/Tyler Gaffalione – 7: 3-2-1): The Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner needs to prove himself on dirt. Certainly, the class is there as he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and second in both the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) and With Anticipation Stakes (G3). If he can translate the form to the main track, then he is a contender. The pedigree signals this surface is fine, but until he runs well on it, he isn't a win choice. Use underneath.

2. Vekoma, 9/5 (Candy Ride – George Weaver/Javier Castellano – 3: 2-0-1): The expected favorite did not run too far off the suicidal Fountain of Youth pace. He settled in fourth early and made a nice move to finish third in the end. Before the layoff, he took the Nashua Stakes (G3) last November at Aqueduct. His only negative is the odd running motion he uses. It is reminiscent of St. Trinians. The pick.

3. Signalman, 8-1 (General Quarters – Kenneth McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 6: 2-2-1): His fall campaign was excellent, as he ran second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and first in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Then he returned in the Fountain of Youth last month, and it went less than stellar as he ended up a non-threatening seventh. Perhaps he needed one race, but not every horse progresses well from 2 to 3, either. Use underneath.

4. Market King, 20-1 (Into Mischief – D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court – 7: 1-1-2): It is no surprise to see seven races in tow already, as Lukas starts his horses often. Most recently, he ran third in the second division of Oaklawn Park's Rebel Stakes (G2). Given the winner Omaha Beach pressed him, Market King did well to stay in the money, although Omaha Beach and champion Game Winner were far ahead. If the pace is moderate to slow, this one could hold on for another piece. Use underneath.

5. Chess Chief, 30-1 (Into Mischief – Dallas Stewart/Paco Lopez – 5: 1-0-1): Recent maiden winner lacks stakes experience, or any subtle hints that a Grade 2-level performance is coming. While Stewart generally does not mis-spot his horses, it is preferable to watch this one for now. Toss.

6. Dream Maker, 10-1 (Tapit – Mark Casse/Florent Geroux – 5: 2-0-0): Tapit colt is a tough one to figure out, as he finished 12th and second-to-last in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last fall, returned in February with a big optional claiming win by over eight lengths at Fair Grounds, and then ran 10th in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). At best, he is usable defensively on top, but untrustworthy as well. Casse adds blinkers here. Win contender.

7. Admire, 15-1 (Cairo Prince – Dale Romans/Robby Albarado – 4: 1-0-0): Considering the fifth-place finish in the Withers Stakes (G3) and a seventh in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), it is difficult to take this colt seriously for the win spot. In fairness, he did some running at Tampa Bay with a mild rail bid into a fast pace. If he puts in the same effort here, a minor piece is reasonable. Use underneath.

8. Win Win Win, 7/2 (Hat Trick – Michael Trombetta/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 5: 3-1-1): As what happens often with flashy sprinters who stretch out to a two-turn route, his closing run looked flat in the Tampa Bay Derby. He did finish third. There was almost no excuse to not win though, as the pace set up heavily in his favor. If a 1 1/16-mile race is too far for him, then how will this race turn out? Toss.

9. Sir Winston, 15-1 (Awesome Again – Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux – 7: 2-0-1): This closer ran a belated fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby. He also ran an OK fourth in Aqueduct's Withers Stakes (G3), although he never threatened the leaders. Horses like these are seemingly never reliable on top. They only clunk underneath into the superfecta if there is enough pace. Use underneath.

10. Lucky Lee, 15-1 (Flatter – John Servis/Chris Landeros – 4: 2-0-0): Two-time Parx winner became exposed in the big leagues with his last-place Withers finish. His home track speed figures are solid, but sometimes those do not translate to major tracks. Toss.

11. So Alive, 15-1 (Super Saver – Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez – 4: 2-0-1): Vino Rosso sibling needs a pace collapse. He picked up third in the Sam F. Davis (G3), but finished 11 1/2 lengths behind Well Defined. Two starts ago, he won an optional claimer at Tampa Bay, but it came over a weak bunch. Use underneath.

12. Parsimony, 20-1 (Dominus – Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez – 8: 0-4-0): Eight-time losing maiden takes his shot at the Blue Grass, but it is hard to imagine what O’Neill sees in him. He finished eighth by 13 1/4 lengths in the second-division Rebel Stakes (G2) and lost three maiden races at Santa Anita this year. Granted, those maiden defeats came over turf. The Rebel is enough evidence to eliminate, though. Toss. 

13. Moonster, 30-1 (Malibu Moon – Dale Romans/John McKee – 8: 1-0-2): Some horses are clearly overmatched on paper, and this is one of them. While he finished third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park, it came with a massive pace setup over synthetic. His lone dirt race this year is lackluster, to say the least, as he finished eighth by 16 1/4 lengths in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Toss.

14. Aquadini, 30-1 (Bernardini – Dallas Stewart/Corey Lanerie – 4: 1-1-0): With no stakes experience, some caution is needed before choosing him. But even though he lost by 3/4 of a length in a Fair Grounds optional claimer, note the 13 3/4-length margin between him and the third-place finisher. He also broke his maiden by more than five lengths, and the second-place Copper King returned to run third next time out. The post position doesn't help here. Live longshot.