Blue Grass fair odds: Favorite Tapit Trice offers value

Forte is the presumptive favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, but this Saturday's final round of major preps should solidify second-choice status, with Blue Grass Stakes favorite Tapit Trice and Santa Anita Derby favorite Practical Move in the hunt for that designation.

Either is the most likely winner of their respective races, but Tapit Trice is the better value. He is 5-2 on Nick Tammaro's Keeneland morning line and 3-2 on my fair odds (100-point) line, making the prospect of a bet on the favorite very alluring.

I have no clever opinion after Tapit Trice, making him a stone cold single for me in all multi-race wagers. I know some were down on his Tampa Bay Derby, but even at 1-2 against 11 others, he looked hopeless turning for home but found a way.

Those tactics would likely work against this bunch as well, which is why I am willing to take as low as 3-2 against 10 others. Whether the is a fit for the Kentucky Derby is another question. However, that question is for four weeks from now. We can assess his chances for that race better after this one, but from a wagering standpoint he is the most likely winner of this by far.

Classic Car Wash is the fifth choice on the morning line but my third-most-likely winner. I'm too bullish on Tapit Trice as the chalk to go any deeper than him in multi-race wagers, but Classic Car Wash could be a key with my top choice if he is in fact that overlooked. Verifying, Scoobie Quando, Sun Thunder, Blazing Sevens, and Raise Cain are all underlays.

In this week's The Dish, the Paddock Prince and I discuss our current Kentucky Derby rankings and the Blue Grass Stakes (see video below).