Fair odds: Closer has value vs. Mystik Dan at Churchill Downs

I must admit I was disappointed when I saw Post Time is the 3-1 morning line favorite for the Grade 3 Blame Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

I had slotted Post Time, who is multiple Grade 1-placed and was runner-up in last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, as the second-most likely winner of the Blame. I thought I was on to something by picking him ahead of such horses as 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Grade 3 winners Hall of Fame and Banishing.

Alas, Churchill morning-line odds maker Mike Battaglia thinks the public will identify Post Time as the most likely winner. And if he is right about that, then the value will not be there given my 4-1 fair odds. I still have some hope, though, as the public may identify Post Time as a miler, and this first try at 1 1/8 miles is sure to test him.

Figures-wise, though, his allowance prep for this on May 3 at Laurel Park towers over this group, and I am encouraged that trainer Brittany Russell made the seasonal debut around two turns. With a lot of speed signed on in this race, Post Time is a major player. Whether he will be a major play depends on price, but I do think there is a chance we get our 4-1.

I thought Most Wanted would be favored in here, and I see him as the most likely winner. Losing the Alysheba (G2) by less than two lengths to champion Fierceness, who will be among the top two choices for the Met Mile (G1) next week, is impressive and the consistency is there.

Based on Ragozin Data, Mystik Dan ran the best race of his life last out in a stakes at Oaklawn. As a Derby winner, he always gets bet, so the 4-1 morning line is still too short to take. But he merits watching more here than in previous races.

Both Hall of Fame and Banishing have competitive numbers but nothing that wows at potentially short prices. Hall of Fame is the more likely value of the two, and there is a chance he is the best value of this group.

I am most excited to bet Post Time if he drifts to 4-1, but I anticipate Hall of Fame to be the most actionable opinion. Jose Ortiz returning to ride is a positive.