Odds and analysis: Mystik Dan is back at Churchill in Blame

Saturday’s Grade 3, $275,000 Blame drew 10 horses from the older male handicap division who will run the 1 1/8-mile distance at Churchill Downs. The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan leads the field in this race , which serves as the local prep for the Stephen Foster (G1) on June 28.

The Blame field also includes a pair of Grade 2 winners and seven others who have a Grade 3 victory. Three of the horses have exceeded the $1 million milestone in career earnings.

Here is the full-field analysis for the Blame with morning-line odds by the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Blame is scheduled as race 10 of 11 with post time set for 5:27 p.m. EDT.

1. Katonah, 20-1. Klimt – Doug O’Neill / Gerardo Corrales – 20: 5-3-2 - $490,180. Katonah won the San Pascal (G2) in January then went to a pair of Grade 1 races, and he was not competitive in the Santa Anita Handicap and then in the Dubai World Cup. He last was seen finishing last in the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill. He is cross-entered in an allowance on Saturday in Kentucky. Toss.

2. Alexander Helios, 12-1. Cairo Prince – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 16: 5-3-3 - $588,420. Alexander Helios finished in the top three in all but one of his 12 most recent starts. His five victories included his maiden win in 2023 at Churchill to his first stakes victory in the Razorback (G3) in February in a field of 14. Last month in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) he was not able to get into his usual pace-pressing position and could get to only a fifth-place finish. Use underneath.

3. Antiquarian, 6-1. Perservationist – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 6: 3-1-0 - $260,000. Antiquarian won the Peter Pan (G3) last year, which led him to a fifth in the Belmont Stakes won by Dornoch. He was off until last month, when he returned to win a seven-furlong allowance at Gulfstream Park with a pace-setting effort as an odds-on favorite. Win contender.

4. Mystik Dan, 5-1. Goldencents – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 12: 3-3-1 - $4,250,860. Mystik Dan will make his sixth start since winning the Kentucky Derby as he tries to avoid being one of the horses who did not win another race after a victory in the first leg of the Triple Crown. He ran in four Grade 1 races, including a second in the Preakness. After a few months off following the Pegasus World Cup (G1) he came back to run second all the way in a stakes at Oaklawn before losing a stretch battle. Win contender.

5. Best Actor, 30-1. Flatter – Ed Moger Jr. / Rafael Bejarano – 14: 5-3-1 - $676,615. Best Actor won the Smarty Jones (G3) at Parx Racing as a 3-year-old while racing as part of the pace. He picked up a couple of allowance victories that year and since was third in last year’s Mineshaft (G3). He moved from the barn of Brad Cox and made two starts in 2025 for his new trainer in Kentucky stakes and finished far back. Toss.

6. Hall of Fame, 6-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Jose Ortiz – 9: 4-2-1 - $497,310. Hall of Fame made two starts on the 2024 Kentucky Derby trail and has been in the best form of his career since December, with a pair of allowance victories followed by a Mineshaft win. His last four races included a second in the New Orleans (G2) and a third in the Alysheba, and he earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form. Win contender.

7. Most Wanted, 7-2. Candy Ride – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 7: 4-3-0 - $805,253. Most Wanted finished first or second in all seven of his starts, with wins in the first four races of his career. That streak included the Ellis Park Derby and the Oklahoma Derby (G3) as a 3-year-old. Since then he was second in three graded stakes after racing on the lead. He also is entered in that Churchill allowance with Katonah. Win contender.

8. Banishing, 5-1. Ghostzapper – David Jacobson / Flavien Prat – 19: 7-4-2 - $1,151,954. Banishing finished first or second in his last nine races with five triple-digit Beyers and a win in the Oaklawn Mile (G3) in March. Last seen he was second by a neck in a dead heat in the Churchill Downs (G1) on Kentucky Derby weekend when he broke last as a horse who typically is forwardly placed. Of his 19 starts only two were at the nine-furlong distance, with a second in the Oaklawn Handicap. Flavien Prat gets back on board. Top choice.

9. Post Time, 4-1. Frosted – Brittany Russell / Sheldon Russell – 16: 10-3-3 - $1,266,550. Post Time is yet another consistent and hard-knocking Thoroughbred in this field. He hit the board in all 16 of his starts with 10 victories including the Carter (G2) last year. After running third in the Cigar mile in December he took five months off from racing. He came back to romp in an allowance at Laurel Park by more than 13 lengths as an odds-on favorite. Win contender.

10. Tennessee Lamb, 12-1. Tonalist – Rusty Arnold / Luis Saez – 11: 3-2-0 - $381,351. Tennessee Lamb won three of his last four starts when he moved from a maiden victory to take the Ben Ali (G3) at Keeneland in April, racing 1 3/16 miles. He showed the ability to race on the lead as he did last time as well as from a closing position. Toss.

Summary: The field for the Blame is a contentious group with horses who know how to win and rarely run bad races. All of them are graded-stakes winnersm and together they have 49 victories.

A fast pace is expected, giving the advantage in this nine-furlong Grade 3 to the late runners. Banishing is in fantastic form with three wins and three seconds since December at distances from six to nine-furlongs. Last seen he broke poorly in the Churchill Downs (G1) but still managed to rally from last to just miss the win by a neck. Expect him to sit a stalking trip with Flavien Prat getting back on board. Banishing is the top choice.