Black-Eyed Susan fair odds: 3 are key to Preakness double

With big prices likely to meet my fair-odds requirement in the Preakness on Saturday at Laurel Park, the two-day double starting with the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan on Friday is quite alluring.

Braken Poppa, Jumping the Gun and My Miss Mo are the top three choices on Horse Racing Nation's morning line, and they are clearly the most likely winners of the Preakness-eve feature. Normally I don't get excited about liking the top three choices in a 10-horse field. But if you feel like you can get through a race three deep and live to some bombs in a 14-horse race, then that's an opportunity.

Overall, I lean toward My Miss Mo being the most likely winner. Not sure what happened to Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) winner Prom Queen in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but that was one of the faster races of the 3-year-old fillies prep season and My Miss Mo figures to benefit from the stretchout to 1 1/8 miles while getting a couple-few pounds from several of these fillies.

It's also worth noting that post 10 is not a liability here. Looking at nine-furlong races the past 12 years at Laurel Park with 9 to 11 starters, the outside posts (9-11) are 7-for-53 with a +28% HRN Impact value. This stat measures expected wins based on odds versus actual wins. 

Braken Poppa is dangerous because of how she has won her races against Louisiana-breds. This is a big step up in class for her, but Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen is adept at shipping to Maryland for Preakness-weekend stakes. My trepidation on her chances is that her Brisnet Pace Ratings are kind of light, but that could very well just be a function of what was needed to beat fellow statebreds.

Jumping the Gun would be favored off everything that she accomplished before that third-place finish last out in the Weber City Miss Stakes as the 13-10 favorite. If you forgive that race, then she's value here. If you think she went the wrong away between 2 and 3 years old, then she is a play against. I'm in the former camp, liking that Luis Saez gets aboard after that bad start and tough trip last out.

In the Black-Eyed Susan-Preakness double I'll use all of Braken Poppa, Jumping the Gun and My Miss Mo with Corona de Oro, Pretty Boy Miah, Robusta and The Hell We Did. That is 5, 7, 10 with 4, 7, 11, 14 for $12 per buck.