Black-Eyed Susan fair odds: Narrow focus in competitive field

The Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on Friday at Pimlico is one of the more competitive races on Preakness Stakes weekend, and it has my attention because I think the public will overspread in this race.

To wit, a third of the field is between 5-2 and 4-1 on the morning line and another third is either 6-1 or 8-1. When anyone can win, there is a lot more value on focusing on the most-likely winner.

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The Black-Eyed Susan is a part of a double with the Preakness, of course, but it also ends an all-stakes pick 5 on Friday and is leg 2 of a two-day pick 5 that starts with The Very One Stakes and ends with three races on Saturday, including the Preakness. A second two-day pick 5 that ends with the Preakness begins with the Miss Preakness Stakes but does not include the Black-Eyed Susan.

The two I am using in the Black-Eyed Susan are Margie's Intention and Kinzie Queen. The former is my most likely winner but not by much. She could be favored even over 5-2 morning-line choice Runnin N Gunnin, but I cannot imagine her being grossly overbet unless there is steam from new trainer Brad Cox.

Kinzie Queen will need the speed to show up to fire her best shot. But I like the breeding by McKinzie out of a Mineshaft mare for this 1 1/8-mile trip on the main track that so far only Liam in the Dust has attempted.

Speaking of Liam in the Dust, it has been a wet week already in Baltimore with the forecast hinting that could continue into the weekend. If the track is sloppy or muddy, I would not like Kinzie Queen as much and would upgrade Liam in the Dust from the rail.