Turfway Park fair odds: Speed, rail provide edge in Big Daddy

Trainer Bill Morey has taken his time with Shefflin, a $175,000 weanling purchase who did not debut until late in his 3-year-old season. But it has been a rapid ascent for the Kantharos gelding, winning a turf sprint on debut before a pair of allowance races from three tries.

The Big Daddy Stakes on Saturday at 8:55 p.m. EST at Turfway Park will be his toughest test to date, but an ideal rail draw and the early zip he has shown to date make him the horse to beat.

That said, with fair odds of 5-2 equal to his morning line, it is possible that he ends up not being worth a bet. Unfortunately, all my fair odds closely align with the morning line. A small glimmer of hope occurs with Eye Witness, who I have as the least likely winner. The morning line pegs him as a horse the public will think of as a marginal contender at 8-1.

The other Morey trainee, Night Time, is 4-1 on the morning line and 6-1 on my fair odds, which currently means he is a bad bet. But if his uncoupled stablemate takes money, he could drift into playable territory, especially considering his closing style with all the speed to his inside.

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