Santa Anita Handicap fair odds: Bankroll is loaded for this play

Going into the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, and certainly coming out of it, Locked had the look of a horse who could contend for horse of the year honors in 2025.

At first blush, his loss to White Abarrio in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) on Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park could have been seen as a blow to those thoughts, but that performance has aged fairly well considering how superlative the winner's performance was and the fact that Locked was running against the track profile.

Now Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher ships Locked west, adds blinkers, and secures the services of Jose Ortiz for the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) on Saturday. The biggest negative is that Locked is the joint highweight with Hit Show at 124 pounds for this 1 1/4-mile handicap. However, the numbers are solid enough that the impost is not an issue for me. Indeed, if there were a head-to-head wager between the two highweights, I'd back Locked for the max at similar prices.

Hit Show is fine in here, but as the likely clear second choice, he is far more likely to be an underlay than favored Locked. Flavien Prat, who is riding at a 32 percent clip this season at Santa Anita, won't help the price either.

Mirahamadi is interesting because he is carrying only 116 pounds, and that win last out was the best of his career, according to Ragozin. I would have some concerns about the distance at a higher weight and more competition than just Locked, but with just one horse as the primary danger, Miramahdi scares me a little bit and I could see using him as an underneath key against Hit Show.