Beverly D fair odds: Longest shot is worth a shot

Six years and three trainers ago, Chick's Shadow won her career debut in a $40,000 maiden claiming race on turf at Colonial Downs. Now, 54 starts later, the 8-year-old mare makes not only her Grade 1 debut but her graded-stakes debut in the Beverly D on Saturday where it all began for her.

That is generally not the recipe for a top pick in a top-level race, and indeed, I do figure Chick's Shadow as the least likely winner of the sextet. But I do think the public will think her even less likely than I will and thus is worth a flyer.

On the plus side, she is 2-for-4 at Colonial with two seconds for an impressive summary line of 4: 2-2-0 over the local sod. She never has been this far, but I see that as more a circumstance of the types of races she was running in. With plenty of speed in here for a six-horse race, jockey Jose Lopez could see how things develop and then make one run to shock the world.

If that is to happen, though, she will will have to run down at least one of Be Your Best or Beach Bomb and likely both. The old adage, "Grade 1 horses win Grade 1 races" predominantly applies here to these two on recent form, with Be Your Best being the only Grade 1 winner in the field.

I give Be Your Best the edge given she has been closer or on the lead in more spirited paces whereas Beach Bomb has been more served while still being forward. This will be a shift in dynamics for her with Be Your Best and Charlene's Dream present.

In addition to hopefully setting things up for my long-shot selection, the front-end trio gives Spanish Eyes and Duvet Day closer looks, but Ragozin rates Chick's Shadow's allowance last out as faster than either of those two have run recently, so I'll take the big price.

Chick's Shadow to win and keyed in the exotics with Be Your Best.