Betting Saratoga: Which jockeys can make you money?
With Saratoga opening again for the Fourth of July holiday weekend we wanted to take a fresh look at the Saratoga jockey colony and try to answer the question, which jockeys are the best to bet on?
To do this we looked at racing at Saratoga over the last 365 days. So these stats combine last summer's meet with this year's Belmont week at Saratoga. And we wanted to go beyond win percentage and look at profitability. We do that by looking at HRN Impact, which measures performance against expectation of odds.
Irad for wins, Prat for win %, but others for profit
Irad Ortiz Jr. leads the Saratoga riders with 57 wins from 318 starts in the last year, posting a solid 17.9% win rate. But despite his high number of victories, Ortiz has underperformed expectations with a negative 13.2% HRN impact, indicating his mounts might be overbet by the public. So he's delivering winners at a rate we can't ignore, but keying your bets around him will not lead to profitability.
Flavien Prat holds the second position with 53 wins from 261 starts and leads the way with a 20.3% win rate. Prat's slight positive HRN impact of 2.2% suggests he's performing right in line with betting market expectations. So he's getting bet like he should win 20% of the time and he's delivering on that expectation. Wow.
The most value-oriented jockey in the top 10 is Dylan Davis, who has bagged 44 wins from 247 starts but with less obvious choices. His 17.8% win rate is right there with the leaders, but the 42.4% positive HRN impact demonstrates he's significantly outperforming the betting market's expectations. So let's continue to ride Dylan Davis for value until everyone else catches on.
Ricardo Santana Jr. and Junior Alvarado also have nice positive impact trends.
| Jockey | Starts | Wins | Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irad Ortiz Jr. | 318 | 57 | 17.9% | -13.2% |
| Flavien Prat | 261 | 53 | 20.3% | 2.2% |
| Manuel Franco | 250 | 30 | 12.0% | -19.5% |
| Dylan Davis | 247 | 44 | 17.8% | 42.4% |
| Luis Saez | 228 | 26 | 11.4% | -1.5% |
| Jose L. Ortiz | 191 | 30 | 15.7% | -6.0% |
| Junior Alvarado | 163 | 27 | 16.6% | 17.9% |
| Joel Rosario | 158 | 17 | 10.8% | -26.8% |
| Kendrick Carmouche | 155 | 13 | 8.4% | -29.0% |
| Ricardo Santana Jr. | 145 | 20 | 13.8% | 32.1% |
Dirt dominance: Key jockeys on Saratoga's main track
On the main track we can see similar trends. Irad Ortiz Jr. leads the way in wins, but he's underwater in terms of HRN Impact. The next three riders all are winning at high percentages with strong HRN impact. To me, this shows the top of the jockey colony is dominating on dirt and good bets, too. And perenennial top riders Luis Saez and Joel Rosario are riding at basically break-even impact levels.
But others we could add to the postivive HRN Impact list include John Velazquez at 39.4%, Ricardo Santana, Jr. at 30.4% and lesser known Luis Rivera Jr. is generating an impact of 103%, although with only 44 dirt mounts in the last 365 days.
If those riders are positive, then others must be negative. Those include: Jose Ortiz at -19.8%, Kendrick Carmouche at -43.4%, Katie Davis at -22.4%, Jose Gomez at -57.8% on two wins out of 51 mounts and Romero Maragh at -43.4% on two wins from 54 mounts.
| Jockey | Dirt Starts | Dirt Wins | Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irad Ortiz Jr. | 194 | 37 | 19.1% | -12.4% |
| Flavien Prat | 145 | 32 | 22.1% | 12.6% |
| Manuel Franco | 139 | 18 | 12.9% | -14.7% |
| Dylan Davis | 140 | 24 | 17.1% | 22.8% |
| Luis Saez | 133 | 17 | 12.8% | -0.2% |
| Jose L. Ortiz | 110 | 17 | 15.5% | -19.8% |
| Junior Alvarado | 101 | 20 | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Joel Rosario | 87 | 12 | 13.8% | -3.0% |
| Ricardo Santana Jr. | 88 | 14 | 15.9% | 30.4% |
| John R. Velazquez | 67 | 14 | 20.9% | 39.5% |
Turf specialists worth backing at Saratoga
Irad Ortiz Jr. tops the turf standings with 20 wins from 124 starts, posting a 16.1% win rate. However, here his HRN impact also is negative, showing his turf mounts are overbet as well.
Once again, Dylan Davis shines through as the bettor's top option, winning 18.7% combined with a 76.3% HRN impact shows he's dramatically outperforming market expectations on grass. We probably could do worse than just betting his turf mounts blindly.
Ricardo Santana Jr. has shown particular aptitude on turf with a 36.2% HRN impact despite a modest 10.5% win rate. Manuel Franco and Joel Rosario have underperformed on turf with HRN impacts of -25.8% and -53.9%, respectively.
| Jockey | Turf Starts | Turf Wins | Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irad Ortiz Jr. | 124 | 20 | 16.1% | -14.6% |
| Flavien Prat | 116 | 21 | 18.1% | -10.5% |
| Manuel Franco | 111 | 12 | 10.8% | -25.8% |
| Dylan Davis | 107 | 20 | 18.7% | 76.3% |
| Luis Saez | 95 | 9 | 9.5% | -4.0% |
| Jose L. Ortiz | 81 | 13 | 16.0% | 21.2% |
| Joel Rosario | 71 | 5 | 7.0% | -53.9% |
| Junior Alvarado | 62 | 7 | 11.3% | 12.6% |
| John R. Velazquez | 60 | 9 | 15.0% | 11.1% |
| Ricardo Santana Jr. | 57 | 6 | 10.5% | 36.2% |