Bets to beat the favorites on Keeneland's Saturday stakes races
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The large, competitive fields offered at Keeneland often make for vulnerable favorites, and we'll be looking for some value in wagers on Saturday's "Fall Stars" card consisting of multiple Breeders' Cup preps. Good luck!
Race 8 (G1 First Lady, 8T)
Vulnerable Favorite: #3 Quidura (2-1), Chad Brown's 5-year-old mare, got an easy lead against four foes in the Ballston Spa (G2) at Saratoga last time, and she kept on going in a solid effort. She is sharp and does not need the lead, but she will take too much money facing a deep cast.
Live Longshot: #7 Dona Bruja (6-1) was taken back to last behind slow fractions in the Beverly D (G1) last time, and she basically lost all chance at the start under Jose Valdivia Jr. that day. The classy mare is 9-for-17 lifetime, owns running style versatility, and reconnects with winning rider Declan Cannon. She likes this flat mile distance and can compete with these on her best day.
Vulnerable Favorite: #13 Mind Control (7-2), the Hopeful Stakes (G1) hero, must work out a trip from post 13 in his first try around two turns. He likes to mix it up early, but others have speed, and I am not sure he wants to go this far.
Live Longshot: The pace should be fast, and I am expecting patient runners to dominate this event. Trainer Dale Romans saddles three horses in this race, and I am most interested in #9 Moonster (10-1). The promising son of Malibu Moon ran out of ground in his five-furlong debut, and he came right back to smartly graduate in a flat mile affair from post 10 at Churchill Downs Sept 15. He figures to strike from mid-pack under Tyler Gaffalione.
Vulnerable Favorite: #5 Heart to Heart (7-2), the classy 14-for-30 veteran, is always dangerous when he is able to make an easy lead. But that is unlikely to happen with other speed in this full field, especially #10 Voodoo Song. The flat mile specialist likes the Keeneland turf course, but others are more interesting at better odds from a trip standpoint.
Live Longshot: There are multiple live longshots in this wide open event, and if you are playing exotics, definitely consider using #2 Divisidero (15-1). He got no pace help in the Woodbine Mile (G1) last time, and he was only beaten 3.5 lengths from an outer post that day. He will almost certainly get pace to chase today, and he should save ground before launching his rally. He rallied to finish fourth at 9-2 odds in this event last fall.
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