Bet With Your Head Not Your Heart

My first experience at a racetrack was in the spring of 1989 when a friend and I walked into Garden State Park in Cherry Hill New Jersey on a Saturday afternoon. I was only sixteen at the time and very impressionable. There was a lot of excitement and energy in the building even though Garden State Park was slightly past its greatest glory years. However, the quality of racing was still pretty good and the Jersey Derby still held national significance. I cannot recall if I won or lost that first day, but I do remember later that evening feverishly trying to find out if Garden State Park was open on Sunday.

It was not the gambling aspect which immediately drew me to horse racing.  It was the sport of this great game that captured my heart. Growing up an avid sports fan, like many others, I had my favorite players, coaches, and teams. Horse racing offered the same opportunity to root for all your preferred horses, jockeys, trainers, and stables. So for the time being that was primarily the way I wagered…with my heart. This was always the case when it came to the stars of the game.  However, it was also true for many of the everyday horses on the local circuit. I blindly bet my favorite jockeys and trainers and even had owners that I took a liking to.   

One of the stars of the game that I fell in love with was Meadow Star. Owned by Carl Ichan and trained by LeRoy Jolley, Meadow Star was brilliant as a two year old. She closed out an unbeaten seven for seven two year old campaign with an easy score in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies in 1990, obviously earning her a two year old filly championship. She won those seven races by a combined forty lengths and was even money or less in the last five of them. After the Breeders' Cup, Meadow Star was rested for the winter and fans eagerly awaited her return in the spring.  

Meadow Star’s three year old campaign began with back to back wins at Aqueduct in March of 1991 and so the buzz began regarding a possible trip to the Kentucky Derby. Her connections obliged racing fans giving her a shot against the boys in the Grade I Wood Memorial where she was soundly defeated finishing 4th beaten over ten lengths. With Derby dreams now quelled, Meadow Star went back to her own division. In her following race she took the Grade I Acorn with ease over Versailles Treaty. This was the last of the precocious and brilliant Meadow Star we were would ever see. 

The second leg of the “Triple Tiara” was the Grade I Mother Goose where she took on MC Hammer’s Lite Light. This was precisely the race where a good handicapper betting with his or her head and not their heart became circumspect of Meadow Star and questioned if she was the filly she once was. The champ was victorious in the Mother Goose that day but unlike every other one of her prior races against females, it did not come easy.

In the Mother Goose Stakes Meadow Star had everything “her own way.” Tom Durkin refers to this numerous times throughout the race: 

“Meadow Star takes the lead and makes it easily.”   

“Meadow Star dictating her own easy pace here.” 

“24.4 for the opening quarter advantage Meadow Star.” 

“Meadow Star is just cruising down the backstretch; it’s a dawdling pace here in the Mother Goose.” 

“The half….they’re walking 49.2 fifths seconds.”  

Meanwhile, Lite Light was allowed to trail the compact field of four.  She made a menacing move on the turn to engage Meadow Star and fought the two year old champion all the way down the stretch which culminated in a Meadow Star nostril victory over Lite Light.  It was a race she won, but should have never lost given the circumstances. Clearly, Lite Light was the better filly that day. She was a horse coming into her best form while the precocity of Meadow Star was starting to reveal itself. 

Nevertheless the public, including myself, continued to support Meadow Star relentlessly at the windows. The final race of the aforementioned Triple Tiara was the Coaching Club American Oaks. On this day Meadow Star was not allowed to have it easy on the lead and she was trounced by Lite Light beaten seven lengths at 6-5 odds. For trip handicappers that must have been one easy and profitable score. Meadow Star was given a breather presumably because she was tired and returned in September. In her next four races she managed only one third going post ward at odds of 4-5, 5/2, 4-5, and even money respectively. The third place effort at even money came against allowance level company. Then she was somehow still bet to 9-2 odds in the Grade I Ruffian after these five straight lackluster performances. Meadow Star lost her final eight races and closed out her career unceremoniously well beaten at 40-1 in the 1992 Breeders Cup Distaff.  It took seven straight defeats for bettors to give up on her. 

Why then was Meadow Star continuously supported after the Coaching Club Oaks, when it was quite clear that the two year old champion was essentially gassed? I believe it was because the public persistently bet with their heart and not head. We all remembered her breathtaking brilliant victories and wanted to believe that she still had those types of races in her when it became increasingly clear she did not. Any other horse that had not become a darling to racing fans from coast to coast would never have taken so much money as the losses started piling up.  

It is fine to support your favorites at the window, but it should be done rationally. For example, I have my favorite trainers that I play religiously, but only under certain conditions. I do not blindly bet all their runners in every possible scenario, and instead support them in races I see as their strength. For instance, the Christophe Clement stable is possibly my barn of choice right now. That does not mean his horses merit a play every time out. Clement is best in grass routes, and I tend to back him with first time starters on the turf, horses coming to his barn for the first time, and horses racing first or second time off a layoff. These are the angles I find him to be most successful with. To be a successful player it requires separating your head and your heart when going to the windows. Sometimes there is nothing wrong with simply a good old fashioned root.

~Written by Jason Perry  @jmanmetsfan1