Fair odds: Can War Campaign catch Kingsbarns in the Ben Ali?

Kingsbarns already has shown an ability to win high-class events going long on the front end, but the presence of Laughing Boy directly to his outside in the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland makes his 2-1 morning-line price an underlay.

Kingsbarns even showed a new dimension when winning his 4-year-old debut off an 8 1/2-month layoff in a seven-furlong race at Gulfstream. That is a good race to build off of, and if he is able to dispatch Laughing Boy with ease then he will be tough to catch. But I put the chances of him winning at 25 percent, so 3-1 is the needed price.

I'm most interested in War Campaign for a mild upset. Of the closers, he is the one who has most shown an ability to lie close and still kick on against tough front runners. Tyler Gaffalione is a welcome addition to the saddle, and that runner-up finish in the Essex Handicap (G3) looks especially good when you consider War Campaign was going 1 1/8 miles off a more than three-month layoff. 

If the outside horse is not the one to offer the best value, then maybe it's the inside horse, Time for Trouble, another deep closer exiting the Essex who gets a new world-class jockey in Flavien Prat. 

From a wagering standpoint, I think you just have to accept that Kingsbarns can beat you as an underlay and that there is a lot more value in leaning on Time for Trouble and War Campaign in the multi-race wagers.