Belmont fair odds: The wise-guy horse is the likely value

If you thought Baeza was the wiseguy horse ahead of the Kentucky Derby, well, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

When Baeza drew into the Kentucky Derby following the scratch of Rodriguez, he instantly became the sexy pick, or at least must-use, of several esteemed handicappers. Baeza somewhat rewarded that backing with a solid third-place effort behind Sovereignty and Journalism as the sixth choice of 19 at 13.86-1.

Now all three of the Derby trifecta appear to be headed toward the Belmont Stakes on June 7 at Saratoga. Sovereignty and Baeza have not raced since the Kentucky Derby, and Journalism went on to win the Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico.

Journalism was the 3.42-1 favorite in the Derby and Sovereignty was the 7.94-1 third choice. They likely will be much closer in the wagering in the Belmont with the actual favorite being a toss-up depending on how much the public values the Derby being in the slop, Journalism's Preakness heroics and the time off, or not, between starts.

Regardless, I do not expect either to offer value against Baeza, who is coming in just as fresh as Sovereignty and has more upside. He is more lightly raced and might not have appreciated the Derby conditions as much as the winner did.

Given the celebrity involved with being Derby and Preakness winners and the added buzz surrounding Journalism's trip when winning the latter, Baeza looks like a solid play in the Belmont.