Belmont fair odds: See where late entry tips value scale

Now that we know who is in the starting gate for Belmont Stakes 2025, there are only three key pieces of information missing before landing on a wager Saturday at Saratoga: where in the starting gate they will be after the post position draw at 5 p.m. EDT on Monday, how they train over the next five sleeps (or, more concerning, if they don't train) and what their actual prices will be.

The consensus seems to be that Journalism, favored in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, will be the favorite for the Belmont as well. I'm not as sure of that, but regardless, they'll be closer in price than any Belmont Stakes we've seen this century.

That is not to say that neither can offer value. With Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty at 2-1 on my fair odds and Journalism 5-2, it is possible one of them drifts above that if the public really takes a shine to Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Baeza, Wood Memorial (G1) winner Rodriguez or the new shooter, Sir Barton Stakes winner Crudo.

The more likely scenario, though, is that both the Derby one-two finishers will be less than 2-1 as Strodes Creek and Go For Gin were against four others in 1994.

That likely tips the scales in favor to Baeza for me, who from a form perspective has just as much upside as Sovereignty off the five weeks rest and maybe a little more opportunity for an explosive effort versus his previous best because of his lighter seasoning.

I liked Rodriguez a lot more before Crudo entered. There is never a guarantee that two horses will duel early, but it is hard to see either of their winning paths not involving aggression.

As for the top two, I slightly prefer Sovereignty because of the five-week break. If both run their absolute bests then I'd say Journalism is more likely in that specific scenario, but the range of possible outcomes has Sovereignty winning this slightly more than his Kentucky Derby rival.

There are also long shots to contend with. As we've seen throughout the Triple Crown season through the years, however, the long shots are generally underlays.

Belmont Stakes: Odds of favorites, second choices and long shots