Belmont fair odds: Battle of classic winners favors spoiler

As if the prospect of seeing Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty square off in the Belmont Stakes with Preakness winner and Derby runner-up Journalism were not exciting enough, bettors might be in a position to cash a double-digit mutuel on Derby third-place finisher Baeza or Wood Memorial Stakes winner Rodriguez.

As of right now, with a field of six expected the quartet above plus Peter Pan winner Hill Road and Preakness also-ran Heart of Honor, Baeza and Rodriguez backers are going to need help from the wagering public to get the right price on an upset.

Getting our fair value on either of the classic winners, 2-1 and 5-2 on Sovereignty and Journalism, respectively, seems very unlikely, so I am not even considering that proposition. The two scenarios where Baeza or Rodriguez offer value involve either one of the classic winners being around even money or both being 8-5 or less.

Tall orders, but the public likes betting celebrity, and we have that in a Kentucky Derby winner who has been training locally after making waves by skipping the Preakness and a Preakness winner who overcame a ton of trouble to wear the blanket of black-eyed Susans.

From a wagering perspective, this is where I like to plant my flag in a multi-race sequence against the obvious choices. Obviously without knowing anything about the races before the Belmont, I'm not getting married to that strategy, but one of the primary questions handicapping the Belmont Stakes card will be whether I am comfortable with a Pick N that uses only Baeza and maybe Rodriguez.