Belmont Stakes guide: Kentucky Derby's top 3 meet again
For the second, and likely final, time Saratoga hosts the Belmont Stakes, the third leg of the Triple Crown. The Grade 1 classic will be run Saturday at the shortened, 1 1/4-mile distance that fits the iconic track's oval. The top three finishers of the Kentucky Derby are back to settle once and for all who is the best of his class.
Journalism, the post-time favorite in the Kentucky Derby and winner of the Preakness, is once more the morning-line favorite. He is the only horse to compete in all three classics this year. Sovereignty, who won the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness, is the second choice. Baeza, the lightly raced California colt who drew into the Derby off the also-eligible list to finish third, is also back to take on the big two.
The Kentucky Derby trifecta hitters are joined by five other challengers, most notably Bob Baffert's Rodriguez, who finally gets his chance to shine after a foot problem kept him out of the Derby and Preakness.
Todd Pletcher drops in Crudo, the Sir Barton stakes winner on Preakness day, and Peter Pan (G3) stakes also-ran Uncaged. Chad Brown has the most intriguing new shooter, Peter Pan winner Hill Road, who seems to blossom the longer the distance. Euro shipper Heart of Honor comes back seeking extra ground as well after his run in the Preakness.
The Belmont Stakes is race 13, post time at 7:04 p.m. EDT.
The Belmont Stakes will be broadcast on Fox and FS1 beginning at 4 p.m. EDT. Undercard stakes will be on FS1 starting at 10:30 a.m. NYRA offers live streaming of all its races daily, including the Belmont at Saratoga, on its website. A free NYRABets account is required. FanDuel TV also will have coverage of racing at Saratoga for the Belmont Stakes as part of its daily racing schedule.
Free past performances for the Belmont Stakes and other races at Saratoga, are courtesy of Brisnet.
See the latest Belmont Stakes live odds update.
Here are the top lifetime speed figures the Belmont Stakes entrants.
| Post | Horse | Beyer* | TFUS* | Brisnet | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hill Road | 94 | 117 | 101 | 113 |
| 2 | Sovereignty | 104 | 118 | 103 | 131 |
| 3 | Journalism | 108 | 122 | 108 | 139 |
| 4 | Uncaged | 84 | 106 | 92 | 107 |
| 5 | Crudo | 84 | 116 | 93 | 122 |
| 6 | Baeza | 102 | 120 | 107 | 129 |
| 7 | Rodriguez | 101 | 120 | 105 | 128 |
| 8 | Heart of Honor | 86 | 108 | 97 | 128 |
*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.
Pace makes the race
The Belmont Stakes is often considered a closer's race, but in recent runnings this has not proven true. Last year, Dornoch was on the pace with Seize the Grey from the gate. Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify were pace and presser types, as was Tiz the Law. Tapwrit, Essential Quality and Mo Donegal were mid-pack stalkers. The last true closer to win was Creator in 2016.
For 2025, TimeformUS projects a strung-out first half-mile with Crudo leading the way followed right behind by Rodriguez, who could seize the lead if he wants. Baeza and Uncaged will be pressing the pace, with Journalism taking the mid-pack slot. Closers Hill Road, Sovereignty and Heart of Honor will bring up the rear.
Baeza has a pivotal spot, as he can apply pressure to the leaders to speed up the pace should it be lagging or lay off and wait for them to wither as the distance catches up to them, and he could get the jump on Journalism in the stretch. Be aware, too that a short field doesn't rule out traffic trouble.
HRN handicappers
HorseCenter is all about the Belmont Stakes, plus picks for the undercard stakes, too.
Hard-core handicappers are back for the Belmont Stakes with in-depth analysis on every contender. See HRN's Mark Midland and Ed DeRosa discuss the race with Draftkings Sportbook's Johnny Avello.
Which is the best path to the Belmont Stakes? Which horse, Sovereignty or Journalism, has taken the more successful road? We have the receipts.
With lone speed less likely, Ed DeRosa turns to the wise-guy horse for the Belmont Stakes.
This week's Ron Flatter Racing Pod features NYRA's Maggie Wolfendale with on-site updates from Saratoga, plus an interview with Baeza's trainer John Shirreffs and Belmont day handicapping tips with The Paddock Prince, David Levitch. Tune in now.
Here are three potential singles for Saturday at Saratoga.
Super Screener's Mike Shutty thinks the Manhattan (G1) is a wide-open affair, and he has zeroed-in on two live long shots.
"The top selection is Tucson," he said. "His performance figures from his last win are understated because of the glacial pace that defined that race. He tracked that slow pace and used his solid turn of foot to outsprint his rivals to win easily and earning the right to face tougher here."
Get your copy of the Belmont Stakes Super Screener, plus every weekend through the Breeders' Cup, here.